关于非法移民- 佛利德曼
出处: Milton Friedman - Illegal Immigration
I have always been amused by a kind of a paradox. suppose you go around and ask people, the United States as you know before 1914 had completely free immigration. Anybody could get on a boat and come to these shores and if he landed on Ellis Island he was an immigrant. Was that a good thing or a bad thing? You will find hardly a soul who will say it was a bad thing. Almost everybody will say that was a good thing. But then suppose I say to the same people, but now, what about today? Do you think we should have free immigration? "Oh NO", they'll say, " we couldn't possibly have free immigration that would flood us with immigratns from India and God knows where, and we'd be driven down to a bare subsistence level.
我一直觉得一种悖论很有趣。假设您四处走走,问问人们,如您所知,美国在1914年之前完全对移民没有限制。任何人都可以乘船到达这些海岸,如果他抵达了埃利斯岛上,他就成为了移民。这是是好事还是坏事?您几乎找不到一个会说这是一件坏事的人。几乎每个人都会说这是一件好事。但是,然后假设我对同一个人说,但是现在,今天呢?您认为我们应该有没有限制的移民吗?他们会说:“哦,不,”我们不可能有无限制的移民,那会让从印度来的移民,或者谁知道从哪里来的移民,充满这个国家,而我们的生活水平将会被降低到勉强维持的水平。
What's the difference? How can people be so inconsistent? Why is it that free immigration was a good thing before 1914 and free immigration is a bad thing today? Well, there's a sense in which that answer is right. There's a sense in which free immigration in the same sense as we had it before 1914 is not possible today. Why not? Because it is one thing to have free immigration to jobs, it is another thing to have free immigration to welfare, and you cannot have both.
这两种情况有什么不同?人们怎么会如此前后矛盾?为什么无限制移民在1914年之前是一件好事而今天却是坏事呢?从某种意义上说,这个答案是正确的。从某种意义上说,今天不可能实现与1914年之前相同的无限制移民。为什么不?因为有无限制的移民到工作是一回事,有无限制的移民到福利是另一回事,而你不能两者兼得。
If you have a welfare state in which every resident is promised certain minimum level of income or a minimum level of subsistance regardless of whether he works or not, produces ot not. Well, then it really is an impossible thing. If you have free immigration in the way in which we had it before 1914, everybody benefited. The people who werer here benefited, the people who came benefited - becauase nobody would come unless he or his family thought he would do better here than he would elsewhere - and the new immigrants provided additional resources, provided additional possibilities for the people already here, so everybody can mutually benefit.
如果您有一个福利国家,其中向每个居民承诺了一定的最低收入水平或最低生活水平,无论他是否工作,是否产生收入。那无限制的移民真的是不可能的事情。如果您按照我们在1914年之前的方式拥有无限制移民,那么每个人都会从中受益。已经在这里的人受益了,来的人受益了-因为没有人会来,除非他或他的家人认为他在这里会比其他地方做得更好-新移民提供了更多的资源,为已经在这里的人们提供了更多的机会,这样每个人都可以互惠互利。
But on the other hand if you come under circumstances where each person is entitled to a pro-rata share of the pot, to take the extreme example, or even to a low level of the pot, then the effect of that situation isthat free immigration would mean a reduction of everybody to the same uniform level. Of course I'm exaggerating it wouldn't go quite that far, but it would go in that direction. And it is that perception that leads people to adopt what at first seems like inconsistent values.
但是另一方面,如果您遇到的情况是每个人都有权按比例分配资源,举一个极端的例子,甚至分配较低的比例,那么在这种情况下的无限制移民就意味着每个人都减少到相同的统一水平。当然,我在夸大其词,现实不会发展地那么极端,但是会朝那个方向发展。正是这种观念使人们拥有最初似乎不一致的价值观。
Look, for example, at the obvious immdediate practical case of illegal Mexican immigration. Now Mexican immigration over the border is a good thing. It's a good thing for the immigrants, it's a good thing for the United States, it's a good thing for the citizens of the country. But it's only good so long as it's illegal. That's an interesting paradox to think about. Make it leagal, and it's no good. why? because as long as its' illegal the people who come in do not qualify for welfare, they don't qualify for social security, they don't qualify for all the other myriads of benefits that we pour out from our left pocket into our right pocket. And so long as they don't qualify they migrate to jobs. They take jobs that most residents of this country are unwilling to take. They provide employers with workers of a kind they cannot get. They are hard workers, they are good workers. And they are clearly better off. If you ever want to know what people prefer, the surest sign is how they vote with their feet, then there is no doubt how the braceros vote. They vote to cross the border, with their feet, on their feet, or in any other way they can. By the thousands, and perhaps millions, for all I know.
例如,看一下墨西哥非法移民的明显的实际案例。现在墨西哥移民越过边界是一件好事。对移民来说,这是一件好事,对美国来说,这是一件好事,对美国公民来说,也是一件好事。但只有它是非法的情况下它才是好事。这是一个有趣的悖论。让它合法,他就不是好事了。为什么?因为只要进来的人是非法的,他们就没有资格享受社会福利,他们就没有资格享受社会保障,他们就没有资格享受我们从左手口袋里掏出来放进右口袋的所有其他无数种福利。只要他们没有资格,他们就只会为了工作而移民。他们接受了该国大多数居民不愿接受的工作。他们为雇主提供了他们所无法获得的那种工人。他们是努力的工人,他们是好工人。而且他们的生活条件显然变得更好。如果您想知道人们的喜欢什么,最可靠的标志就是他们如何用脚投票,墨西哥移民是如何投票就毫无疑问了。成千上万,甚至数百万的他们用脚,或者任何他们有的其他方式投票来越过边界,据我所知。
Illegal immigration is fascinating because it shows not only the main point I'm trying to bring out now, how interconnected are the various aspects of freedom, how interconnected is the problem of government arrangements for welfare and governmental arrangements for immigration and other things, but it shows a very different point that's kind of a digression. And that is how bad laws make socially advantageous acts illegal and therefore leads to an undermining of morality in general.
非法移民是个很有趣的问题,是因为它不仅显示了我现在要强调的要点,自由的各个方面之间的联系如何,政府的福利安排和政府的移民安排等问题之间的联系如何,而且它显示了一个有点离题的截然不同的观点。这就是坏法律如何使对社会有利的行为成为非法,从而在总体上破坏道德行为。
I have always been amused by a kind of a paradox. suppose you go around and ask people, the United States as you know before 1914 had completely free immigration. Anybody could get on a boat and come to these shores and if he landed on Ellis Island he was an immigrant. Was that a good thing or a bad thing? You will find hardly a soul who will say it was a bad thing. Almost everybody will say that was a good thing. But then suppose I say to the same people, but now, what about today? Do you think we should have free immigration? "Oh NO", they'll say, " we couldn't possibly have free immigration that would flood us with immigratns from India and God knows where, and we'd be driven down to a bare subsistence level.
我一直觉得一种悖论很有趣。假设您四处走走,问问人们,如您所知,美国在1914年之前完全对移民没有限制。任何人都可以乘船到达这些海岸,如果他抵达了埃利斯岛上,他就成为了移民。这是是好事还是坏事?您几乎找不到一个会说这是一件坏事的人。几乎每个人都会说这是一件好事。但是,然后假设我对同一个人说,但是现在,今天呢?您认为我们应该有没有限制的移民吗?他们会说:“哦,不,”我们不可能有无限制的移民,那会让从印度来的移民,或者谁知道从哪里来的移民,充满这个国家,而我们的生活水平将会被降低到勉强维持的水平。
What's the difference? How can people be so inconsistent? Why is it that free immigration was a good thing before 1914 and free immigration is a bad thing today? Well, there's a sense in which that answer is right. There's a sense in which free immigration in the same sense as we had it before 1914 is not possible today. Why not? Because it is one thing to have free immigration to jobs, it is another thing to have free immigration to welfare, and you cannot have both.
这两种情况有什么不同?人们怎么会如此前后矛盾?为什么无限制移民在1914年之前是一件好事而今天却是坏事呢?从某种意义上说,这个答案是正确的。从某种意义上说,今天不可能实现与1914年之前相同的无限制移民。为什么不?因为有无限制的移民到工作是一回事,有无限制的移民到福利是另一回事,而你不能两者兼得。
If you have a welfare state in which every resident is promised certain minimum level of income or a minimum level of subsistance regardless of whether he works or not, produces ot not. Well, then it really is an impossible thing. If you have free immigration in the way in which we had it before 1914, everybody benefited. The people who werer here benefited, the people who came benefited - becauase nobody would come unless he or his family thought he would do better here than he would elsewhere - and the new immigrants provided additional resources, provided additional possibilities for the people already here, so everybody can mutually benefit.
如果您有一个福利国家,其中向每个居民承诺了一定的最低收入水平或最低生活水平,无论他是否工作,是否产生收入。那无限制的移民真的是不可能的事情。如果您按照我们在1914年之前的方式拥有无限制移民,那么每个人都会从中受益。已经在这里的人受益了,来的人受益了-因为没有人会来,除非他或他的家人认为他在这里会比其他地方做得更好-新移民提供了更多的资源,为已经在这里的人们提供了更多的机会,这样每个人都可以互惠互利。
But on the other hand if you come under circumstances where each person is entitled to a pro-rata share of the pot, to take the extreme example, or even to a low level of the pot, then the effect of that situation isthat free immigration would mean a reduction of everybody to the same uniform level. Of course I'm exaggerating it wouldn't go quite that far, but it would go in that direction. And it is that perception that leads people to adopt what at first seems like inconsistent values.
但是另一方面,如果您遇到的情况是每个人都有权按比例分配资源,举一个极端的例子,甚至分配较低的比例,那么在这种情况下的无限制移民就意味着每个人都减少到相同的统一水平。当然,我在夸大其词,现实不会发展地那么极端,但是会朝那个方向发展。正是这种观念使人们拥有最初似乎不一致的价值观。
Look, for example, at the obvious immdediate practical case of illegal Mexican immigration. Now Mexican immigration over the border is a good thing. It's a good thing for the immigrants, it's a good thing for the United States, it's a good thing for the citizens of the country. But it's only good so long as it's illegal. That's an interesting paradox to think about. Make it leagal, and it's no good. why? because as long as its' illegal the people who come in do not qualify for welfare, they don't qualify for social security, they don't qualify for all the other myriads of benefits that we pour out from our left pocket into our right pocket. And so long as they don't qualify they migrate to jobs. They take jobs that most residents of this country are unwilling to take. They provide employers with workers of a kind they cannot get. They are hard workers, they are good workers. And they are clearly better off. If you ever want to know what people prefer, the surest sign is how they vote with their feet, then there is no doubt how the braceros vote. They vote to cross the border, with their feet, on their feet, or in any other way they can. By the thousands, and perhaps millions, for all I know.
例如,看一下墨西哥非法移民的明显的实际案例。现在墨西哥移民越过边界是一件好事。对移民来说,这是一件好事,对美国来说,这是一件好事,对美国公民来说,也是一件好事。但只有它是非法的情况下它才是好事。这是一个有趣的悖论。让它合法,他就不是好事了。为什么?因为只要进来的人是非法的,他们就没有资格享受社会福利,他们就没有资格享受社会保障,他们就没有资格享受我们从左手口袋里掏出来放进右口袋的所有其他无数种福利。只要他们没有资格,他们就只会为了工作而移民。他们接受了该国大多数居民不愿接受的工作。他们为雇主提供了他们所无法获得的那种工人。他们是努力的工人,他们是好工人。而且他们的生活条件显然变得更好。如果您想知道人们的喜欢什么,最可靠的标志就是他们如何用脚投票,墨西哥移民是如何投票就毫无疑问了。成千上万,甚至数百万的他们用脚,或者任何他们有的其他方式投票来越过边界,据我所知。
Illegal immigration is fascinating because it shows not only the main point I'm trying to bring out now, how interconnected are the various aspects of freedom, how interconnected is the problem of government arrangements for welfare and governmental arrangements for immigration and other things, but it shows a very different point that's kind of a digression. And that is how bad laws make socially advantageous acts illegal and therefore leads to an undermining of morality in general.
非法移民是个很有趣的问题,是因为它不仅显示了我现在要强调的要点,自由的各个方面之间的联系如何,政府的福利安排和政府的移民安排等问题之间的联系如何,而且它显示了一个有点离题的截然不同的观点。这就是坏法律如何使对社会有利的行为成为非法,从而在总体上破坏道德行为。
41 个评论
经济学家瞎说什么大实话,左媒会很生气

非法移民主要是低素质,高犯罪率,作奸犯科没人能管。
这是犹太人用来坑害普通人的棋子而已。
这是犹太人用来坑害普通人的棋子而已。
确实是大实话
非法移民主要是低素质,高犯罪率,作奸犯科没人能管。这是犹太人用来坑害普通人的棋子而已。
文章不是说,非法移民有益社会所以应该请非法移民进来
而是说,福利政策让非法移民享受不到福利变为了一种竞争上的优势,依靠这种隐性优势从底层合法公民手中抢夺了饭碗
但表现出来的却是“招某一人种、不招某一人种”,“种族歧视”这种道德问题成了直观的表面现状
文章不是说,非法移民有益社会所以应该请非法移民进来而是说,福利政策让非法移民享受不到福利变为了一种竞...
非法移民享受不到福利是竞争上的劣势,意味着劳动力要价会更高
非法移民享受不到福利是竞争上的劣势,意味着劳动力要价会更高
虽然有些人难以置信,但我以亲身见闻来说
穷人真的可以用常人难以想象的、非常微薄的金钱来生存……为了在毫无福利的条件下获取赖以维生的工作,非法移民真的还可以把自己的价格压得更低,而不是更高
虽然有些人难以置信,但我以亲身见闻来说穷人真的可以用常人难以想象的、非常微薄的金钱来生存……为了在毫...
这是和他们自身相比的,你想想看他们要是移民就能拿到福利,那移民的人只会更多,这时候工资反而会更低
非也,换中国的语境,劳务派遣工没有公积金缴纳,社保也是走最低标准。各家公司在节约员工成本的时候都会倾...
公积金和社保不是福利,都是你工资的一部分,你失业了政府给你发钱或者你工资低政府给你补贴才是福利,你要搞清楚什么是福利
公积金和社保不是福利,都是你工资的一部分,你失业了政府给你发钱或者你工资低政府给你补贴才是福利,你要...
对不起,这个例子还真是不好。还是不能工作摸鱼写东西,先下了
这是和他们自身相比的,你想想看他们要是移民就能拿到福利,那移民的人只会更多,这时候工资反而会更低
走之前……那你为什么认为“非法移民的劳动力要价会更高”呢?
走之前……那你为什么认为“非法移民的劳动力要价会更高”呢?
给了他福利对他来讲生活成本下降了,可以更低的要价工资
对不起,这个例子还真是不好。还是不能工作摸鱼写东西,先下了
其实在中国这个负福利国家真正的福利基本是没有的
给了他福利对他来讲生活成本下降了,可以更低的要价工资
这个真的是不能苟同……如果能拿到福利,低收入者会把它当作“额外收入”,而不是靠福利去要更低的工资,我想。
给了他福利对他来讲生活成本下降了,可以更低的要价工资
哈,我再加个法定最低工资,看你们怎么更低地要价工资。
我建议你在最后加上“这里的内容已经不适用了,因为加州已经给非法移民发放福利”这句话。Friedman的演讲的基础是他认为最起码左派会尊重the rule of law,很明显他还是高估了左派。
哈,我再加个法定最低工资,看你们怎么更低地要价工资。
第一法定工资很少被非法移民遵守,其次如果法定工资比较高非法移民也可以通过多干活更认真的干活获得竞争力,举个例子温州人在意大利就从来不拿最低工资,单位时薪要低得多
这个真的是不能苟同……如果能拿到福利,低收入者会把它当作“额外收入”,而不是靠福利去要更低的工资,我...
注意非法移民要的是立足,那么找到工作就是必须的,你前面说的穷人真的可以用常人难以想象的、非常微薄的金钱来生存……为了在毫无福利的条件下获取赖以维生的工作,非法移民真的还可以把自己的价格压得更低,而不是更高其实就是穷人会降低要价获取竞争力的理由
注意非法移民要的是立足,那么找到工作就是必须的,你前面说的穷人真的可以用常人难以想象的、非常微薄的金...
我认识的最穷的人,无收入也在生存。
收入不可能无限压低,收入太低非法移民也没工作积极性的。你当过穷人吗?我当过,睡麦当劳去大学食堂要饭,也因此结识过一些穷人。会把自己的收入算个总和,然后压低自己的工资收入报价来换竞争力的穷人,是哪个星球来的啊?你真的在脑补。
不过现在也没福利给他们,所以绕下去也没有什么意义。你的意思我明白了,但有点不对劲……并不像真穷人的想法。真穷人也想改善自己生活的,不是“哪怕当猪也可以”。
我认识的最穷的人,无收入也在生存。收入不可能无限压低,收入太低非法移民也没工作积极性的。你当过穷人吗...
你知不知道穷人只要能工资零工和记件工都是很积极的,如果是固定工作移民会不惜以非常低的工资来工作,因为很简单即使是那么低的工资也比老家生活好,你自己缺乏经济学训练想象不到福利增加吸引更多人移民,更多人移民增加劳动力供给,工资下降这个链条
你知不知道穷人只要能工资零工和记件工都是很积极的,如果是固定工作移民会不惜以非常低的工资来工作,因为...
就是工资是零,你给的福利有时候也超过了那些劳工的劳动价值,所以还是亏本的。而且你用的别的纳税人的钱发的福利。等于说你把其他公民交的税交给这些老板当补贴,让他们雇佣不交税的非法移民,你觉得公平么?
就是工资是零,你给的福利有时候也超过了那些劳工的劳动价值,所以还是亏本的。而且你用的别的纳税人的钱发...
实际上相当多的职业就是依靠政府补贴存在的,不然很可能会被自动化取代,比如商超营业员餐厅服务员快递员这些,政府补贴维持了很多这类职位的低工资,减少了研发自动化对这些职位的替代
实际上相当多的职业就是依靠政府补贴存在的,不然很可能会被自动化取代,比如商超营业员餐厅服务员快递员这...
well,怎么说呢,互有利弊吧,自动化了的话商品会更便宜吧。不过政府真要补贴的话还要最低工资干啥。直接差多少补上就是。像我之前说的那个negative income tax那样。
well,怎么说呢,互有利弊吧,自动化了的话商品会更便宜吧。不过政府真要补贴的话还要最低工资干啥。直...
价格主要由供需曲线决定,低收入者大量失业可能导致他们更多消费廉价商品需求曲线可能发生变化,自动化比较有利于资本所有者获取更大规模的财富,也就是说低端业态和高端业态需求会增长,中等业态需求会下降
价格主要由供需曲线决定,低收入者大量失业可能导致他们更多消费廉价商品需求曲线可能发生变化,自动化比较...
之前多出来的劳动力还可以去新的未开发的领域。不过自动化确实是game changer,体力劳动力以后可能完全不需要了。
之前多出来的劳动力还可以去新的未开发的领域。不过自动化确实是game changer,体力劳动力以后...
新的未开发领域很可能并不需要那么多人,而只需要少数人开发自动化程序
弗里德曼讲的太好了,这段分析应该让更多人看见
新的未开发领域很可能并不需要那么多人,而只需要少数人开发自动化程序
我就是这个意思。但是你要知道,到时候物价也会低得离谱。
弗里德曼讲的太好了,这段分析应该让更多人看见
我翻译过来发到这里就是为了这个XD
你知不知道穷人只要能工资零工和记件工都是很积极的,如果是固定工作移民会不惜以非常低的工资来工作,因为...
你说的很好。
不好意思再杠精一下——工资不会无限制下降的。你说的“非法移民有福利拿”,有福利吃的话,就不一定靠工作生活了。到时候劳动力到底是上升还是下降还不知道,除非是获得工作才有的福利。补贴的不是移民而是他们找的职位的话,转移支付是可以压低工资。
感谢您的翻译与分享。
受教了
受教了
你说的很好。不好意思再杠精一下——工资不会无限制下降的。你说的“非法移民有福利拿”,有福利吃的话,就...
有福利拿不代表能替代工作,工作主要是提供社交圈和上升通道以及庇护,非法移民这几个基本都没有
我就是这个意思。但是你要知道,到时候物价也会低得离谱。
不一定实际上大部分人所谓的物价是由几样东西组成的,居住医疗教育是大头,这几样受自动化影响很小
不一定实际上大部分人所谓的物价是由几样东西组成的,居住医疗教育是大头,这几样受自动化影响很小
照你这么说到那时候各个服务业还能有很多就业机会。
照你这么说到那时候各个服务业还能有很多就业机会。
并不是就业机会和价格下降还是上升并没有关系,事实上之所以这些行业价格不大会下降一个原因就是这个行业的劳动力需求和价值并不会有太大变化,举个例子房产价格涨了一倍,但是房产中介和地产商不会因此多雇人,决定房产价格的是土地供给,而不是别的什么。
并不是就业机会和价格下降还是上升并没有关系,事实上之所以这些行业价格不大会下降一个原因就是这个行业的...
怎么不会多雇人。房价涨了的话施工计划肯定更多了。房产中介推销员肯定要多雇啊。

歸根結底是能不能正視本國的人口問題和教育問題,如果美國白人人口少於50%那麼美國就會一個月出現多次全國騷亂,白人人口在到30%就更可能會國家分裂,這時移民非不非法已經不重要了,種族矛盾必然會變成禍國的首要矛盾。
怎么不会多雇人。房价涨了的话施工计划肯定更多了。房产中介推销员肯定要多雇啊。
你这就不理解房地产规律了,房地产的基础是土地,土地尤其是优质地段大都早就开发完毕基本是二手房交易,你可以看看香港,新开发项目都是极少的,真正的大头来自二手房交易

我覺得很多中國非法移民對美國是無害的,他們認同自由民主的生活方式,反而很多中國合法移民是共匪體制內的既得利益者或者共匪派去美國從事統戰活動的工作人員,這些人是美國的禍害。
弗里德曼反对的是福利而不是移民,然而他的中国徒子徒孙们却读成了福利好移民坏,ironic