引用一篇商業衛星文章說明-為什麼如今已經沒有發生"閃電戰"的條件了

https://news.usni.org/2021/11/02/commercial-radar-satellites-reveal-russian-stealth-fighters

  以這篇文章說起



  Back in 1955, the Soviet Union flew its bombers in a loop over an air show to give the illusion of having more aircraft than were actually in its arsenal, a move that caused alarm in the West. The resulting ‘bomber gap’ was finally disproven when U2 aircraft were able to systematically photograph Russian airbases. This allowed them to literally count the aircraft. Doing this took incredible resources and several years.


Now commercial satellites allow anyone with internet access to obtain the same information. More users can monitor Russian bombers in near real-time with improvements in high-frequency coverage, quality of imagery, and diversity of providers.

The monitoring of air bases to assess a potential adversary’s strength and readiness remains an important task for navies and other armed forces. Natural targets include long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft, bombers and strike aircraft. A major way this can be done is by using space-based sensors, which can monitor airfields over time. Many strategically relevant airbases are likely under frequent observation by the myriad of passing satellites.

Capella Space recently provided USNI News images of selected Russian airbases. The company tasked a satellite and the results came back within just a few hours.

  早在 1955 年，蘇聯的轟炸機在一次航展上空盤旋飛行，給人一種飛機數量超過其軍火庫實際數量的錯覺，這一舉動在西方引起了恐慌。當 U2 飛機能夠系統地拍攝俄羅斯空軍基地時，由此產生的“轟炸機差距”最終被證偽。這使他們能夠從字面上計算飛機。這樣做需要大量資源和數年時間。

  現在，商業衛星允許任何可以訪問互聯網的人獲取相同的信息。隨著高頻覆蓋範圍、圖像質量和供應商多樣性的改進，更多用戶可以近乎實時地監控俄羅斯轟炸機。

  監測空軍基地以評估潛在對手的實力和戰備狀態仍然是海軍和其他武裝部隊的一項重要任務。自然目標包括遠程海上偵察機、轟炸機和攻擊機。實現這一目標的一個主要方法是使用天基傳感器，它可以隨著時間的推移監測機場。許多具有戰略意義的空軍基地可能會受到無數經過的衛星的頻繁觀察。

Capella Space 最近提供了 USNI News 選定的俄羅斯空軍基地的圖片。該公司為一顆衛星分配了任務，結果在幾個小時內就回來了。




One of the targets chosen was a base with Russian Tupolev Tu-142 Bear maritime reconnaissance aircraft. The aircraft has been the subject of intercept reports off Alaska, Japan or Europe. These massive planes, with distinctive swept wings with four turboprop engines, are directly descended from vintage bombers observed at the air display over 65 years ago.

The distinctive Bear aircraft showed up very clearly in the imagery. The engines and wings provided were clearly visible in synthetic aperture radar imagery. Some Tu-22M Backfire naval bombers were similarly easy to pick up. The radar reflections vary depending on the relative angles of the aircraft to the sensor, but these aircraft are relatively easy for analysts to identify.

Maritime reconnaissance aircraft are typically large and unambiguously and not stealthy. Monitoring them, of any navy, is going to be straightforward. Especially where they use dedicated airbases. For example, telling the difference between a civilian Boeing 737 airliner and a Navy P-8 might prove difficult without additional clues.

A tougher challenge would be Russia’s new generation of stealth fighters. As seen previously with the Type-022 missile boat in China, vehicles that are designed to be low-observable to radar are not hidden from SAR satellites — including the new Russian Su-57 Felon 5th generation fighter.

The imagery Capella provided of Akhtubinsk Airfield in Russia showed a range of aircraft. In one zoomed-in section, two Sukhoi Su-57 Felons are visible. They can be differentiated from the Su-34 Fullbacks parked nearby. Elsewhere on the base other aircraft included Mikoyan MiG-31 Fox Hound fighters and small Su-25 Frog Foots. The fidelity of the images show that it’s possible to distinguish between different types of low-observable aircraft, even if the aircraft are low-observable. This could be relevant to naval planners as more countries adopt both land-based and carrier-based fifth-generation fighters.


 選定的目標之一是擁有俄羅斯圖波列夫 Tu-142 Bear 海上偵察機的基地。這架飛機一直是阿拉斯加、日本或歐洲海域截獲報告的對象。這些巨大的飛機擁有獨特的後掠翼和四個渦輪螺旋槳發動機，是 65 年前在空中展示中觀察到的老式轟炸機的直接後裔。

  獨特的熊飛機在圖像中非常清晰地出現。所提供的發動機和機翼在合成孔徑雷達圖像中清晰可見。一些 Tu-22M 逆火海軍轟炸機同樣容易上手。雷達反射因飛機與傳感器的相對角度而異，但分析人員相對容易識別這些飛機。

  海上偵察機通常很大，而且毫不含糊，而且不隱蔽。對任何海軍的監視都將是直截了當的。特別是在他們使用專用空軍基地的地方。例如，在沒有額外線索的情況下，區分民用波音 737 客機和海軍 P-8 可能很難。

  俄羅斯新一代隱形戰鬥機將面臨更嚴峻的挑戰。正如之前在中國的 022 型導彈艇上看到的那樣，設計為雷達低可觀測性的車輛並沒有隱藏在 SAR 衛星之外——包括新的俄羅斯 Su-57 Felon 第五代戰鬥機。

  Capella 提供的俄羅斯阿赫圖賓斯克機場的圖像顯示了一系列飛機。在一個放大的部分中，可以看到兩個 Sukhoi Su-57 Felon。它們可以與停在附近的 Su-34 邊後衛區分開來。在基地的其他地方，其他飛機包括 Mikoyan MiG-31 Fox Hound 戰鬥機和小型 Su-25 Frog Foots。圖像的保真度表明，可以區分不同類型的低可觀察飛機，即使飛機是低可觀察的。隨著越來越多的國家同時採用陸基和艦載第五代戰鬥機，這可能與海軍規劃者相關。


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  如今商業衛星 "更新頻率+解析度" 已經發達到可以讓一般用戶,可以接近實時觀測到機場的部屬 乃至飛機大概數量與機型.

  裡面舉的例子是給衛星下達任務之後的"幾小時內"

  如果是換成 數量更多,且都是專用的"間諜"衛星 系統化偵查的軍方這個效率是在幾個量級之上的