海峡时报又说「最后时刻生变亦非不可能」了
链接在此：https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/last-minute-changes-in-china-s-leadership-reshuffle-possible
不知道是不是海峡时报升级了，Bypass Paywall Clean 不管用了，archive.today 也拽不到全文，因此完全不知道它全文说了啥。
不知道是不是海峡时报升级了，Bypass Paywall Clean 不管用了，archive.today 也拽不到全文，因此完全不知道它全文说了啥。
11 个评论
尼玛，我在老老实实付钱
BEIJING - The countdown has begun for a sweeping once-every-five-year reshuffle of China’s supreme leadership on Sunday that will see President Xi Jinping assume a rare third term as head of the Communist Party of China (CPC), but 11th-hour changes cannot be ruled out.
About 2,300 delegates will elect around 200 full members and 170 alternate members of the party’s top leadership body, its Central Committee, on the last day of a week-long congress on Saturday.
During the first plenary session of the new 20th Central Committee the following day, full members will in turn elect the party’s 25-member Politburo, its Standing Committee (SC) and the general secretary, as well as the chairman and vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and the chief of the anti-corruption watchdog, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI).
Mr Xi, the country’s most powerful leader since Chairman Mao Zedong, is set to secure a third five-year term as the party’s general secretary and CMC chairman during the one-day plenum.
China’s elite political manoeuvring has become more opaque under Mr Xi, who has clamped down on leaks regarding internal politics and backroom negotiations. It is anyone’s guess who will make it into the SC – the pinnacle of power in China – and whether the number of leaders in this highest order will stay at seven or be expanded to nine, as it was during the two terms of Mr Hu Jintao.
“This time, not even a fly is able to fly out” of the closed-door meetings, a source with ties to the leadership said, referring to how the reshuffle is shrouded in secrecy.
But one party insider who requested anonymity told The Straits Times that “the biggest variable is Li Keqiang”, referring to China’s 67-year-old Premier who is ranked second in the SC behind Mr Xi.
Mr Li must step down as premier after two five-year terms, but he has not reached retirement age and can retain his SC seat for another five-year term.
An informal retirement norm better known as the “seven up, eight down” rule sets at 67 the age limit for old and new members of the SC and the Politburo at the start of a new term. Politicians aged 68 or older are disqualified.
But Mr Li, who some say is frustrated playing second fiddle to the strongman President in the past 10 years, is said to want full retirement.
“Li Keqiang wants to luo tui due to health reasons,” the insider said, using a Chinese term that literally means “naked retirement” that describes a cadre who will no longer hold any official or non-official position in any organisation.
“But this could send the wrong message that he and Xi do not get along. Party elders are trying to convince him to stay on.”
If they succeed, he could become chairman of the National People’s Congress or Parliament in 2023 while retaining his No. 2 rank.
China’s 67-year-old Premier Li Keqiang (right) is ranked second in the Standing Committee behind President Xi Jinping. PHOTO: REUTERS
Mr Xi needs to balance the factions and at least listen to what the party elders want. But he also has a penchant for breaking with tradition and could well spring surprises at the plenum on Sunday.
If he stays faithful to the “seven up, eight down” practice – while at age 69, exempting himself from it – currently third-ranked Li Zhanshu, 72, and seventh-ranked Han Zheng, 68, will step down.
Fourth-ranked Wang Yang, 67, who is chairman of Parliament’s top advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, has been tipped to succeed Mr Li as premier in 2023. As far as seniority goes, Mr Wang should be next in line for the prime minister’s job, moving from fourth to third rank.
Tradition also dictates that only those who have been vice-premiers and are capable of managing the economy can be appointed premier. Mr Wang was vice-premier between 2013 and 2018, overseeing commerce, among other things.
Ideology czar, the fifth-ranked Wang Huning, 67, may not have reached retirement age, but he could
BEIJING - The countdown has begun for a sweeping once-every-five-year reshuffle of China’s supreme leadership on Sunday that will see President Xi Jinping assume a rare third term as head of the Communist Party of China (CPC), but 11th-hour changes cannot be ruled out.
About 2,300 delegates will elect around 200 full members and 170 alternate members of the party’s top leadership body, its Central Committee, on the last day of a week-long congress on Saturday.
During the first plenary session of the new 20th Central Committee the following day, full members will in turn elect the party’s 25-member Politburo, its Standing Committee (SC) and the general secretary, as well as the chairman and vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission (CMC), and the chief of the anti-corruption watchdog, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI).
Mr Xi, the country’s most powerful leader since Chairman Mao Zedong, is set to secure a third five-year term as the party’s general secretary and CMC chairman during the one-day plenum.
China’s elite political manoeuvring has become more opaque under Mr Xi, who has clamped down on leaks regarding internal politics and backroom negotiations. It is anyone’s guess who will make it into the SC – the pinnacle of power in China – and whether the number of leaders in this highest order will stay at seven or be expanded to nine, as it was during the two terms of Mr Hu Jintao.
“This time, not even a fly is able to fly out” of the closed-door meetings, a source with ties to the leadership said, referring to how the reshuffle is shrouded in secrecy.
But one party insider who requested anonymity told The Straits Times that “the biggest variable is Li Keqiang”, referring to China’s 67-year-old Premier who is ranked second in the SC behind Mr Xi.
Mr Li must step down as premier after two five-year terms, but he has not reached retirement age and can retain his SC seat for another five-year term.
An informal retirement norm better known as the “seven up, eight down” rule sets at 67 the age limit for old and new members of the SC and the Politburo at the start of a new term. Politicians aged 68 or older are disqualified.
But Mr Li, who some say is frustrated playing second fiddle to the strongman President in the past 10 years, is said to want full retirement.
“Li Keqiang wants to luo tui due to health reasons,” the insider said, using a Chinese term that literally means “naked retirement” that describes a cadre who will no longer hold any official or non-official position in any organisation.
“But this could send the wrong message that he and Xi do not get along. Party elders are trying to convince him to stay on.”
If they succeed, he could become chairman of the National People’s Congress or Parliament in 2023 while retaining his No. 2 rank.
China’s 67-year-old Premier Li Keqiang (right) is ranked second in the Standing Committee behind President Xi Jinping. PHOTO: REUTERS
Mr Xi needs to balance the factions and at least listen to what the party elders want. But he also has a penchant for breaking with tradition and could well spring surprises at the plenum on Sunday.
If he stays faithful to the “seven up, eight down” practice – while at age 69, exempting himself from it – currently third-ranked Li Zhanshu, 72, and seventh-ranked Han Zheng, 68, will step down.
Fourth-ranked Wang Yang, 67, who is chairman of Parliament’s top advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, has been tipped to succeed Mr Li as premier in 2023. As far as seniority goes, Mr Wang should be next in line for the prime minister’s job, moving from fourth to third rank.
Tradition also dictates that only those who have been vice-premiers and are capable of managing the economy can be appointed premier. Mr Wang was vice-premier between 2013 and 2018, overseeing commerce, among other things.
Ideology czar, the fifth-ranked Wang Huning, 67, may not have reached retirement age, but he could
Ideology czar, the fifth-ranked Wang Huning, 67, may not have reached retirement age, but he could step down.
MORE ON THIS TOPIC
Xi may bend retirement age rule for military top brass
How retired party officials make themselves heard in China
Current SC members who have yet to reach retirement age could stay on. Mr Zhao Leji, 65, currently ranked sixth and head of CCDI, could take Mr Wang’s fourth-ranked seat and become chairman of the advisory body in 2023.
The SC could be rounded off with sixth generation leaders – Mr Xi’s top aide Ding Xuexiang, 60, Chongqing party chief Chen Min’er, 62, and current third-ranked vice-premier Hu Chunhua, 59.
Of these three younger leaders, Mr Ding, director of the party’s General Office, and Mr Chen are considered Mr Xi’s allies, while Mr Hu is from the Communist Youth League faction along with Mr Li.
Considered a highly capable leader, Mr Hu could take over from currently seventh-ranked Han Zheng to become executive vice-premier, which will also allow Mr Xi to keep the factional balance of power.
“As much as we know, Xi Jinping has been dominating the CPC for close to a decade, since around 2015, I would assume that he still has to take into consideration the needs of the other factions as well as the merits of those party elites who are not from his faction,” said associate research fellow James Char, who studies Chinese domestic politics at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“Moreover, since Xi already exercises such dominance over the regime, he can decide to tap the expertise of anyone he deems suitable – even if they are not his proteges.”
Xi may bend retirement age rule for military top brass
How retired party officials make themselves heard in China
Current SC members who have yet to reach retirement age could stay on. Mr Zhao Leji, 65, currently ranked sixth and head of CCDI, could take Mr Wang’s fourth-ranked seat and become chairman of the advisory body in 2023.
The SC could be rounded off with sixth generation leaders – Mr Xi’s top aide Ding Xuexiang, 60, Chongqing party chief Chen Min’er, 62, and current third-ranked vice-premier Hu Chunhua, 59.
Of these three younger leaders, Mr Ding, director of the party’s General Office, and Mr Chen are considered Mr Xi’s allies, while Mr Hu is from the Communist Youth League faction along with Mr Li.
Considered a highly capable leader, Mr Hu could take over from currently seventh-ranked Han Zheng to become executive vice-premier, which will also allow Mr Xi to keep the factional balance of power.
“As much as we know, Xi Jinping has been dominating the CPC for close to a decade, since around 2015, I would assume that he still has to take into consideration the needs of the other factions as well as the merits of those party elites who are not from his faction,” said associate research fellow James Char, who studies Chinese domestic politics at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
“Moreover, since Xi already exercises such dominance over the regime, he can decide to tap the expertise of anyone he deems suitable – even if they are not his proteges.”
英文水平不佳，扔谷歌翻译里了一下
北京 - 周日，中国最高领导层每五年一次的全面改组已经开始倒计时，习近平主席将罕见地第三次担任中国共产党 (CPC) 主席，但第 11 小时不能排除变化。
在周六为期一周的全国代表大会的最后一天，大约 2,300 名代表将选出党的最高领导机构中央委员会的大约 200 名正式成员和 170 名候补成员。
次日新一届二十届中央委员会第一次全体会议上，由正式成员依次选举党的二十五名政治局委员、政治局常委、总书记，以及党的主席、副主席。中央军委（CMC），中央反腐倡廉监察委员会（CCDI）负责人。
习近平是自毛泽东主席以来中国最有权势的领导人，他将在为期一天的全会上获得第三个五年任期的中共总书记和中央军委主席的任期。
在习近平的领导下，中国精英的政治策略变得更加不透明，他严厉打击了有关内部政治和幕后谈判的泄密事件。谁会进入最高级别的常委会——中国权力的顶峰——谁也说不准，这个最高级别的领导人是保持在七人，还是像胡锦涛先生的两届任期那样扩大到九人。 .
一位与领导层有联系的消息人士说，“这一次，连一只苍蝇都飞不出来”，他指的是改组是如何秘密进行的。
但一位要求匿名的党内人士告诉海峡时报，“最大的变数是李克强”，他指的是中国 67 岁的总理，他在 SC 中排名第二，仅次于习近平。
李先生必须在两个五年任期后卸任总理，但他还没有达到退休年龄，可以再保留他的SC席位五年。
一项更为人所知的“七上八下”规则的非正式退休规范将新任常委和政治局新老成员在新任期开始时的年龄限制为 67 岁。 68 岁或以上的政治家将被取消资格。
但有人说，李先生在过去 10 年里一直在为强人总统担任副手感到沮丧，据说他希望完全退休。
“李克强因为身体原因想落脚，”知情人说，用中文字面意思是“裸退”，指的是不再在任何组织中担任任何官方或非官方职位的干部。
“但这可能会发出错误的信息，即他和习不和。党的长老们正试图说服他留下来。”
如果他们成功，他可以在 2023 年成为全国人大或议会主席，同时保持他的第二号位。
67岁的中国国务院总理李克强（右）在常委会中排名第二，仅次于习近平主席。照片：路透社
习先生需要平衡派别，至少要听听党内长老们想要什么。但他也喜欢打破传统，很可能会在周日的全会上带来惊喜。
如果他坚持“七上八下”的做法——在69岁的时候免去它——目前排名第三的72岁的栗战书和排名第七的68岁的韩正将下台。
排名第四的汪洋现年 67 岁，他是中国人民政治协商会议最高咨询机构的主席，他有望在 2023 年接替李克强担任总理。就资历而言，王阳应该是下一个首相的职位，从第四位上升到第三位。
传统还规定，只有担任过副总理且有能力管理经济的人才能被任命为总理。王先生在 2013 年至 2018 年期间担任副总理，负责监督商业等事务。
意识形态沙皇，排名第五的王沪宁，67岁，可能还没到退休年龄，但他可以
北京 - 周日，中国最高领导层每五年一次的全面改组已经开始倒计时，习近平主席将罕见地第三次担任中国共产党 (CPC) 主席，但第 11 小时不能排除变化。
在周六为期一周的全国代表大会的最后一天，大约 2,300 名代表将选出党的最高领导机构中央委员会的大约 200 名正式成员和 170 名候补成员。
次日新一届二十届中央委员会第一次全体会议上，由正式成员依次选举党的二十五名政治局委员、政治局常委、总书记，以及党的主席、副主席。中央军委（CMC），中央反腐倡廉监察委员会（CCDI）负责人。
习近平是自毛泽东主席以来中国最有权势的领导人，他将在为期一天的全会上获得第三个五年任期的中共总书记和中央军委主席的任期。
在习近平的领导下，中国精英的政治策略变得更加不透明，他严厉打击了有关内部政治和幕后谈判的泄密事件。谁会进入最高级别的常委会——中国权力的顶峰——谁也说不准，这个最高级别的领导人是保持在七人，还是像胡锦涛先生的两届任期那样扩大到九人。 .
一位与领导层有联系的消息人士说，“这一次，连一只苍蝇都飞不出来”，他指的是改组是如何秘密进行的。
但一位要求匿名的党内人士告诉海峡时报，“最大的变数是李克强”，他指的是中国 67 岁的总理，他在 SC 中排名第二，仅次于习近平。
李先生必须在两个五年任期后卸任总理，但他还没有达到退休年龄，可以再保留他的SC席位五年。
一项更为人所知的“七上八下”规则的非正式退休规范将新任常委和政治局新老成员在新任期开始时的年龄限制为 67 岁。 68 岁或以上的政治家将被取消资格。
但有人说，李先生在过去 10 年里一直在为强人总统担任副手感到沮丧，据说他希望完全退休。
“李克强因为身体原因想落脚，”知情人说，用中文字面意思是“裸退”，指的是不再在任何组织中担任任何官方或非官方职位的干部。
“但这可能会发出错误的信息，即他和习不和。党的长老们正试图说服他留下来。”
如果他们成功，他可以在 2023 年成为全国人大或议会主席，同时保持他的第二号位。
67岁的中国国务院总理李克强（右）在常委会中排名第二，仅次于习近平主席。照片：路透社
习先生需要平衡派别，至少要听听党内长老们想要什么。但他也喜欢打破传统，很可能会在周日的全会上带来惊喜。
如果他坚持“七上八下”的做法——在69岁的时候免去它——目前排名第三的72岁的栗战书和排名第七的68岁的韩正将下台。
排名第四的汪洋现年 67 岁，他是中国人民政治协商会议最高咨询机构的主席，他有望在 2023 年接替李克强担任总理。就资历而言，王阳应该是下一个首相的职位，从第四位上升到第三位。
传统还规定，只有担任过副总理且有能力管理经济的人才能被任命为总理。王先生在 2013 年至 2018 年期间担任副总理，负责监督商业等事务。
意识形态沙皇，排名第五的王沪宁，67岁，可能还没到退休年龄，但他可以
习近平总书记在最后时刻深入学习了奥斯曼帝国马哈茂德汗·本·阿卜杜勒哈米德苏丹和穆罕默德·阿里帕夏的智慧.
将元老以开会名义骗过来,调动亲兵杀光了元老然后全国范围内搜捕元老残余势力,最后大权独揽.
将元老以开会名义骗过来,调动亲兵杀光了元老然后全国范围内搜捕元老残余势力,最后大权独揽.
后面部分的谷歌翻译：
意识形态沙皇，排名第五的王沪宁，67岁，可能还没到退休年龄，但他可以下台。
更多关于这个话题
习近平可能会改变军方高层的退休年龄规定
退休党员如何在中国发声
尚未达到退休年龄的现任 SC 成员可以留任。现年 65 岁的赵乐际先生，目前排名第六，是 CCDI 负责人，他可能会接替王先生的第四位，并在 2023 年成为该咨询机构的主席。
第六代领导人——习近平的最高助手丁学祥，60岁，重庆市委书记陈敏儿，62岁，现任第三任副总理，59岁，胡春华。
在这三位年轻领导人中，党的办公厅主任丁先生和陈先生被认为是习近平的盟友，而胡先生与李先生一起来自共青团派。
胡锦涛被认为是一位非常有能力的领导人，他可以接替目前排名第七的韩正成为常务副总理，这也将使习近平能够保持派别权力平衡。
“据我们所知，习近平执掌中共已近十年，从2015年左右开始，我认为他仍然需要考虑其他派别的需要和党内精英的优点。在新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究学院研究中国国内政治的副研究员詹姆斯·查尔说。
“此外，由于习近平已经对政权行使了如此大的统治力，他可以决定利用任何他认为合适的人的专业知识——即使他们不是他的门徒。”
意识形态沙皇，排名第五的王沪宁，67岁，可能还没到退休年龄，但他可以下台。
更多关于这个话题
习近平可能会改变军方高层的退休年龄规定
退休党员如何在中国发声
尚未达到退休年龄的现任 SC 成员可以留任。现年 65 岁的赵乐际先生，目前排名第六，是 CCDI 负责人，他可能会接替王先生的第四位，并在 2023 年成为该咨询机构的主席。
第六代领导人——习近平的最高助手丁学祥，60岁，重庆市委书记陈敏儿，62岁，现任第三任副总理，59岁，胡春华。
在这三位年轻领导人中，党的办公厅主任丁先生和陈先生被认为是习近平的盟友，而胡先生与李先生一起来自共青团派。
胡锦涛被认为是一位非常有能力的领导人，他可以接替目前排名第七的韩正成为常务副总理，这也将使习近平能够保持派别权力平衡。
“据我们所知，习近平执掌中共已近十年，从2015年左右开始，我认为他仍然需要考虑其他派别的需要和党内精英的优点。在新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究学院研究中国国内政治的副研究员詹姆斯·查尔说。
“此外，由于习近平已经对政权行使了如此大的统治力，他可以决定利用任何他认为合适的人的专业知识——即使他们不是他的门徒。”
_ _ 唉, 這是一篇為不清楚大陸穀中之事的人科普的文章, 對有在大陸抄底卻一無所知的人有一定參考意義, 一看這麽麻煩會打退堂鼓吧. 我覺得漢字鍵政的正常人普通水平就都知道. 感謝翻譯的葱友, 同時對購買的葱友表示理解.