「伊斯兰的天命」伊朗的（无）水（之）患：野火的烟已经在冒了（回复中更新：2025-9-10）
上次说到是 8 月中：https://pincong.rocks/article/87234
而且上一帖好像还给某个没什么人看的「进步」简体 youtuber 贡献了好几十 k 流量 （怒哉
----------------------------------
彼时至今，三周以来，伊朗当然是没有一滴雨的。
所以，没必要有画面，尽可以想象。
所以这回就是比较「枯燥」的数字。
伊朗的十二主要蓄水大坝：三个已经干了，八个也快了 （阿亚图拉：不怕，还有一根苗在！）
先解释一下伊朗的「水会计年」做法：从 2024/9/22 到 2025/9/21 为一年，计算此期间的水。目前差不多到了。
而且是个人都知道：9 月伊朗没有雨。
更多解说是多余的，废话没个蛋用，直接 timeline:
7 月 20 日， 德黑兰大学水资源管理学者 Banafshah Zahraei，称「给德黑兰供水的四个主要大坝将在 9 月下旬干掉」
8 月中，逐渐有越来越多的人注意到，于是咱也在品葱发了一帖 https://pincong.rocks/article/87234
8 月 28 日，伊朗水资源公司副总 Mehdi Daneshgar，发声明说「这个水会计年的雨量比去年少了 41%，入库的水量少了 42%」 （Mua! <3! <3!
9 月 1 日，党媒教媒 ISNA 报：Qom 省，15 Khordad 水坝已经被国营水供应系统移除。该坝库容 2 亿立方，目前水量为 16,000,000 立方，其中 15,000,000 立方为「死库容」，不可用。
从 8 月中到 9 月 4 日，干了的三个主要大坝：
Shamil and Niyan Dam in Hormozgan province
Voshmgir Dam in Golestan province
Rudbal Darab Dam in Fars province
不要忘了，早在 5 月就有报道说： 伊朗的好些个主要大坝的蓄水量已经不足 10%：
Lar Dam in Tehran Province (6%)
Shamil and Niyan Dam in Hormozgan province (~1%)
Rudbal Dam in Fars Province (2%)
Doosti Dam in Razavi Khorasan (9%)
Saveh Dam in Markazi Province (9%)
Tanguyeh Dam in Kerman Province (8%)
彼时到现在，再到整个 9 月 （现在才刚刚开始），两个字：没雨
而根据过往数据，伊朗在 10 月的雨量平均值为 0.8 寸。（今年很可能不到）
所以，请尽情想象这精彩的两个月，因为区区一条河消失的画面对理解此状况是苍白而无力的
----------------------------
鉴于伊朗最近的内部状况（那才叫一个精彩），既然都看到了灰烟滚滚，如今加上对波斯好戏的期待，应该可以说是正确的选择了吧？
而且上一帖好像还给某个没什么人看的「进步」简体 youtuber 贡献了好几十 k 流量 （怒哉
----------------------------------
彼时至今，三周以来，伊朗当然是没有一滴雨的。
所以，没必要有画面，尽可以想象。
所以这回就是比较「枯燥」的数字。
伊朗的十二主要蓄水大坝：三个已经干了，八个也快了 （阿亚图拉：不怕，还有一根苗在！）
Sia Rajabi September 4, 2025
With the intensifying water crisis and the Iranian regime’s failure in resource management, official reports indicate a serious decline in reservoir levels behind the dams. Three dams in the country have completely dried up, while eight other important and large dams are on the brink of drying out.
According to data from Iran’s Water Resources Management Company, since the beginning of the current water year (September 22, 2024, to August 30, 2025), the total inflow into the country’s dams has been recorded at 24.19 billion cubic meters, which represents a 42% decrease compared to 41.56 billion cubic meters during the same period last year.
During this period, Shamil and Niyan Dam in Hormozgan province, Voshmgir Dam in Golestan province, and Rudbal Darab Dam in Fars province were recorded with zero water reserves, thus categorized as completely dried-up dams.
Additionally, eight other major dams across the country are on the verge of drying out.
25% decrease in the volume of water in dams
The state-run IRNA news agency reported that by August 30, the volume of water stored in the country’s major dams had reached about 20 billion cubic meters, showing a 25% decrease compared to 26.53 billion cubic meters during the same time last year.
IRNA noted that this year, water release from dams was limited to manage the summer months and wrote that since the beginning of the water year, only 28.53 billion cubic meters of water has been withdrawn.
According to this report, the figure was 36.97 billion cubic meters last year, meaning water withdrawals from dams have dropped by 23% this year.
The drying of dams has intensified in recent months and years, and with continued decline in rainfall and the regime’s inability to manage resources, the reserves of several dams have reached zero while eight major dams are on the verge of drying out.
Earlier, on September 1, the state-run ISNA news agency reported that the 15 Khordad Dam in Qom province was taken out of the water supply system. The report said this 200-million-cubic-meter dam currently holds only 16 million cubic meters of water, of which 15 million cubic meters is “dead volume” and unusable.
On August 28, Mehdi Daneshgar, deputy head of Iran’s Water Resources Management Company, announced that rainfall in the current water year was 41% lower than last year, and dam inflows had decreased by 42%.
On July 20, Banafshah Zahraei, a professor of water resources management at the University of Tehran, said that four main dams supplying water to Tehran would dry up by late September.
This crisis is worsening because there are no sources available to compensate for the lost water.
先解释一下伊朗的「水会计年」做法：从 2024/9/22 到 2025/9/21 为一年，计算此期间的水。目前差不多到了。
而且是个人都知道：9 月伊朗没有雨。
更多解说是多余的，废话没个蛋用，直接 timeline:
7 月 20 日， 德黑兰大学水资源管理学者 Banafshah Zahraei，称「给德黑兰供水的四个主要大坝将在 9 月下旬干掉」
8 月中，逐渐有越来越多的人注意到，于是咱也在品葱发了一帖 https://pincong.rocks/article/87234
8 月 28 日，伊朗水资源公司副总 Mehdi Daneshgar，发声明说「这个水会计年的雨量比去年少了 41%，入库的水量少了 42%」 （Mua! <3! <3!
9 月 1 日，
从 8 月中到 9 月 4 日，干了的三个主要大坝：
Shamil and Niyan Dam in Hormozgan province
Voshmgir Dam in Golestan province
Rudbal Darab Dam in Fars province
不要忘了，早在 5 月就有报道说： 伊朗的好些个主要大坝的蓄水量已经不足 10%：
Lar Dam in Tehran Province (6%)
Shamil and Niyan Dam in Hormozgan province (~1%)
Rudbal Dam in Fars Province (2%)
Doosti Dam in Razavi Khorasan (9%)
Saveh Dam in Markazi Province (9%)
Tanguyeh Dam in Kerman Province (8%)
彼时到现在，再到整个 9 月 （现在才刚刚开始），两个字：没雨
而根据过往数据，伊朗在 10 月的雨量平均值为 0.8 寸。（今年很可能不到）
所以，请尽情想象这精彩的两个月，因为区区一条河消失的画面对理解此状况是苍白而无力的
----------------------------
鉴于伊朗最近的内部状况（那才叫一个精彩），既然都看到了灰烟滚滚，如今加上对波斯好戏的期待，应该可以说是正确的选择了吧？
6 个评论
赶紧指责美国用气象武器！
看来伊朗总统去凑数参加支那阅兵也没拿到什么援助，支那能看到的新闻70%是白头山伟人，甚至老川都只点名中俄朝合谋，这种被敌我双方都忽视的位置确实有滑稽感。新轴心国抛弃狐朋狗友的速度是真的快，才几个月就没声气了，京哥还说要支援核建设，没下文了，平子拿出来阅兵的导弹说打击全球，如果是真的不就证明当时伊朗挨打，平子全程旁观，就这对待盟友的支那契约精神，澳大利亚人还要使劲舔，可啥也换不到啊
后续：已经有 5 个蓄水坝干了
伊朗水资源管理公司最新数据：继之前「干透」的 3 个坝，新增 2 个：
Golestan dam
Boostan dam
都在 Glolestan province
除此之外，新的数据表明，许多蓄水坝状况堪忧
Sefidrud dam of Gilan (3%)
Taham dam of Zanjan (9%)
Tanguieh dam in Sirjan (7%)
Nesa dam in Kerman (7%)
伊朗东部相对好一点
Chahnimeh reservoirs in Sistan and Baluchestan (13%)
Nahrin dam in South Khorasan (12%)
Doosti and Torogh dams of Razavi Khorasan (5%)
德黑兰省
Lar dam in Tehran province (3%)
Latian and Mamloo dams (14%)
伊朗官方已经在「强制节水节电」了
伊朗的「国营媒体」也已经在放风「九月下旬开始水配给」，面临 E3 恢复制裁的伊朗政府也刚刚和 IAEA 表示「重启审查」
小佩政府已经表示要从 Taleghan dam 输水到德黑兰，然而坦言「不够」（要知道，这可是「抓大放小」之后的「不够」哦）
什么「被缺水缺电打断的经济活动与工农业生产」，什么银行一周只开三天，呵呵呵呵，顾不上了。
至于什么区区地面下陷那些「长久影响」，那些什么「伊朗的平原沙化」，嗯（咳），不要怕根本不致命的小问题，不要担忧还没发生的事。属实杞人忧天了。
----------------------------
真实的情况，用何清涟的话来说，那就是：伊朗的「生态基座」已然不复存在。或者「伊朗的人口早已超过伊朗的生态承载能力」。若仿效「人口：中国的悬剑」，来一本「人口：イランの終焉」，那绝对是能逗来无数台式慈善左们大肆批判的。
半个多世纪的努力破坏，半个多世纪的灾难延续，半个多世纪的自杀准备，谁敢提意见，谁就是反对神圣的阿拉，侮辱伟大的波斯，是要上绞刑架的，用自己的尸体和临终的滑稽表演，让骄傲自豪，富于美德的伟大波斯人民取乐。
或者换个「历史的学生」来发表现阶段的观察总结：伊斯兰革命政权，大概是波斯这片相当能反映「伊斯兰的天命」的土地上，最后的一个能维持统一的政权。它完成了这个文明在生态意义上的自杀选择，注定成为这个文明最后的送葬者，最终自己也要一起躺入寂静的坟墓，等待考古学家们的铲子在将来的某一天光临。
生态当然不是不可恢复，而是恐怕「现代人类等不了那么久」。
有兴趣的，自己去了解吧。
一些关键词：water table depletion, desert civilizations and ruins，伊朗伊斯兰革命的爆发，巴列维的「土地改革」，以及「伊朗工业化」，「伊朗农业」，针对伊朗的人口学研究，等等
然后你就会理解，为什么说「巴列维把自我毁灭的火炬完美地传给了霍梅尼，后者和他的追随者们小心翼翼地呵护到今天，不断添油加柴，舍命也绝不让其熄灭」。
Mehdi Hosseini September 9, 2025
The latest data from Iran’s Water Resources Management Company shows that between September 22, 2024, and September 6, 2025, the reserves of five major dams in Iran have fallen to zero.
With the worsening water crisis and the regime’s inability to manage resources, new official reports indicate that 19 large dams in the country are facing severe drought.
Voshmgir, Golestan, and Boostan dams in Golestan province, Rudbal Darab dam in Fars, and Shamil and Niyan dams in Hormozgan have completely dried up.
In Gilan, the Sefidrud dam holds only 3% of its capacity, while in Zanjan, the Taham dam has reached a warning level with just 9% of reserves.
The Tanguieh dam in Sirjan and the Nesa dam in Kerman are also in critical condition, with only 7% capacity.
In recent months, frequent water and power outages have severely affected citizens’ daily lives and disrupted industrial production and economic activities.
While Iranian regime officials call on people to save water and change consumption patterns, they have proven incapable of addressing the structural and managerial roots of the water and electricity crises.
Data from the Water Resources Management Company also shows that in eastern Iran, the Chahnimeh reservoirs in Sistan and Baluchestan are at 13% capacity, and the Nahrin dam in South Khorasan is at 12%, ending the water year with minimal reserves.
The Lar dam in Tehran province is only 3% full, while the Latian and Mamloo dams have 14% reserves, both in poor condition.
In Razavi Khorasan, the Doosti and Torogh dams are also in a critical state, with only 5% capacity.
On September 7, the state-run daily Ham-Mihan reported that with reservoirs running dry, the likelihood of water rationing by late September has increased.
According to the report, although Masoud Pezeshkian’s government has planned to transfer water from the Taleghan dam, the volume is “insufficient to meet Tehran’s needs.”
On September 4, the ISNA news agency wrote that consecutive years of drought, declining rainfall, and the water shortage crisis have affected agricultural production, including wheat.
Earlier, on August 12, the spokesperson of Iran’s water industry warned of the unprecedented severity of the crisis, stating that 70% of Iran’s plains are in “prohibited” or “critically prohibited” status, with more than 300 plains—including Tehran—facing the serious threat of land subsidence.
On August 11, the Water Resources Management Company reported that a total of 58% of the country’s dam reservoirs were empty.
伊朗水资源管理公司最新数据：继之前「干透」的 3 个坝，新增 2 个：
Golestan dam
Boostan dam
都在 Glolestan province
除此之外，新的数据表明，许多蓄水坝状况堪忧
Sefidrud dam of Gilan (3%)
Taham dam of Zanjan (9%)
Tanguieh dam in Sirjan (7%)
Nesa dam in Kerman (7%)
伊朗东部相对好一点
Chahnimeh reservoirs in Sistan and Baluchestan (13%)
Nahrin dam in South Khorasan (12%)
Doosti and Torogh dams of Razavi Khorasan (5%)
德黑兰省
Lar dam in Tehran province (3%)
Latian and Mamloo dams (14%)
伊朗官方已经在「强制节水节电」了
伊朗的「国营媒体」也已经在放风「九月下旬开始水配给」，面临 E3 恢复制裁的伊朗政府也刚刚和 IAEA 表示「重启审查」
小佩政府已经表示要从 Taleghan dam 输水到德黑兰，然而坦言「不够」（要知道，这可是「抓大放小」之后的「不够」哦）
什么「被缺水缺电打断的经济活动与工农业生产」，什么银行一周只开三天，呵呵呵呵，顾不上了。
至于什么区区地面下陷那些「长久影响」，那些什么「伊朗的平原沙化」，嗯（咳），不要怕根本不致命的小问题，不要担忧还没发生的事。属实杞人忧天了。
----------------------------
真实的情况，用何清涟的话来说，那就是：伊朗的「生态基座」已然不复存在。或者「伊朗的人口早已超过伊朗的生态承载能力」。若仿效「人口：中国的悬剑」，来一本「人口：イランの終焉」，那绝对是能逗来无数台式慈善左们大肆批判的。
半个多世纪的努力破坏，半个多世纪的灾难延续，半个多世纪的自杀准备，谁敢提意见，谁就是反对神圣的阿拉，侮辱伟大的波斯，是要上绞刑架的，用自己的尸体和临终的滑稽表演，让骄傲自豪，富于美德的伟大波斯人民取乐。
或者换个「历史的学生」来发表现阶段的观察总结：伊斯兰革命政权，大概是波斯这片相当能反映「伊斯兰的天命」的土地上，最后的一个能维持统一的政权。它完成了这个文明在生态意义上的自杀选择，注定成为这个文明最后的送葬者，最终自己也要一起躺入寂静的坟墓，等待考古学家们的铲子在将来的某一天光临。
生态当然不是不可恢复，而是恐怕「现代人类等不了那么久」。
有兴趣的，自己去了解吧。
一些关键词：water table depletion, desert civilizations and ruins，伊朗伊斯兰革命的爆发，巴列维的「土地改革」，以及「伊朗工业化」，「伊朗农业」，针对伊朗的人口学研究，等等
然后你就会理解，为什么说「巴列维把自我毁灭的火炬完美地传给了霍梅尼，后者和他的追随者们小心翼翼地呵护到今天，不断添油加柴，舍命也绝不让其熄灭」。
俄羅斯救一下，再買幾萬架見證者136無人機
什么时候里海南岸平原也干了，它就该真歇菜了