加沙战争进行时 大概率是停不了火了

https://www.axios.com/2025/10/28/israel-break-ceasefire-hamas-bodies-rafah
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Tuesday that he had ordered "powerful strikes in the Gaza Strip immediately" in retaliation for what Israeli officials say was a Hamas attack on Israeli forces in the city of Rafah.

The big picture: The deal to end the war in Gaza was easily President Trump's biggest diplomatic achievement this term. It's now looking incredibly fragile.

The Trump administration has been focusing over the last several weeks on stabilizing the ceasefire and pressing both parties to avoid steps that could detonate it.
As part of that mission, the White House sent several top officials to Israel and established a U.S. command center in Israel to oversee it and monitor the situation on the ground.
But a deepening dispute over the return of deceased hostages by Hamas, and a firefight on Tuesday in the city of Rafah, intensified calls in Israel for military action. The strikes Netanyahu ordered could rupture the ceasefire altogether.
Driving the news: Hamas militants fired anti-tank missiles and conducted sniper fire on Tuesday against Israeli forces in the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, the Israel Defense Forces said.

Most of this area is controlled by the IDF, but some Hamas militants still operate in tunnels in the area.
The attack led to significant exchanges of fire between Hamas militants and the IDF. The Israeli air force also conducted air strikes in Rafah in response.
After Netanyahu's announcement on the strikes, Hamas' military wing said it would postpone the handover of a deceased hostage it had recovered earlier on Tuesday. "We confirm that any Zionist escalation will hinder the search, excavation, and recovery of the bodies, which will lead to a delay in the occupation's recovery of the bodies of its dead," the statement said.
Between the lines: Before the Rafah incident, Nentayahu had already consulted with Israel's military leaders about taking new military action in Gaza over alleged ceasefire violations by Hamas related to the returning of deceased hostages.

Israeli officials told Axios that Netanyahu was seeking to get in touch with Trump — who is traveling in East Asia — to seek a green light for a military response.
But the events in Rafah appear to have changed Netanyahu's calculus. There's no indication they spoke before he released the statement announcing new strikes.
Zoom out: Israeli officials claim Hamas is "dragging its feet" on returning the remains of 13 hostages still held in Gaza.

以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡周二宣布，他已下令“立即对加沙地带进行强力打击”，以报复以色列官员所说的哈马斯袭击拉法赫市以色列军队的行为。

总体情况：结束加沙战争的协议无疑是特朗普总统本届任期内最大的外交成就。但现在看来，它却极其脆弱。

过去几周，特朗普政府一直致力于稳定停火，并敦促双方避免采取可能破坏停火的举措。
作为这项使命的一部分，白宫派遣多名高级官员前往以色列，并在以色列建立了一个美国指挥中心，负责监督停火并监测当地局势。
然而，围绕哈马斯遣返已故人质的争端日益加深，以及周二在拉法赫市发生的交火，加剧了以色列国内要求采取军事行动的呼声。内塔尼亚胡下令的袭击可能会彻底破坏停火。
新闻焦点：以色列国防军称，哈马斯武装分子周二向位于加沙南部拉法市的以色列军队发射了反坦克导弹，并进行了狙击射击。

该地区大部分地区由以色列国防军控制，但一些哈马斯武装分子仍在该地区的隧道中活动。
此次袭击导致哈马斯武装分子与以色列国防军之间发生大规模交火。作为回应，以色列空军也在拉法市进行了空袭。
在内塔尼亚胡宣布空袭后，哈马斯军事部门表示将推迟移交周二早些时候找到的一名遇难人质。声明称：“我们确认，任何犹太复国主义升级都将阻碍搜寻、挖掘和打捞尸体的工作，这将导致占领方打捞遇难者尸体的时间被推迟。”
言外之意：在拉法事件发生之前，内塔亚胡已经与以色列军方领导人磋商，就哈马斯涉嫌违反停火协议、遣返已故人质一事在加沙采取新的军事行动进行磋商。

以色列官员告诉Axios，内塔尼亚胡正试图与正在东亚访问的特朗普取得联系，寻求采取军事行动的许可。
但拉法事件似乎改变了内塔尼亚胡的考量。没有迹象表明他们在内塔尼亚胡发表宣布新一轮袭击的声明之前进行了交谈。
镜头拉远：以色列官员声称哈马斯在归还仍被扣押在加沙的13名人质遗体方面“拖拖拉拉”。
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跟我之前想的差不多 哈马斯党中央失去了对基层哈马斯的控制
基层哈马斯已经出现了自行其是的情况 估计本来就是非常分散的军阀组织 原来在伟大理想下才混编在一起的部队
现在既然党中央背叛了革命 那么基层部队自行其是也很正常
当然不排除是党中央受益的 就好像国民政府通过群众运动的方式收回租界一样
以为可以通过类似的方式规避责任 把锅甩出去
但是以色列的应对方式也很简单 我就找你哈马斯党中央问责