新pre-print猜测武汉锁城之前，飞往世界各地的武汉乘客中，有多少带菌者

原文：https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020479v1.full.pdf+html

文章作者用往年记录预测2019nCoV在2020一月到四月的扩散方向和程度。

We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834 (95% UI: 478 -
1349) had 2019-nCoV infection, travelled from Wuhan to 382 cities outside of
mainland China during the two weeks prior to Wuhan’s lockdown. The majority
of these cities were in Asia, but major hubs in Europe, the US and Australia
were also prominent, with strong correlation seen between predicted
importation risks and reported cases seen.

作者猜测，武汉锁城之前，有59,912人从武汉飞往中国以外的城市，其中估计834人感染。目的地城市主要在亚洲，欧美澳大利亚比例也高。并且，模型预测和已知案例分布重合。