【转贴】脑洞－如何赶走僭主？

卫报早上发了一个脑洞文章，讨论如何赶走独裁，

https://www.theguardian.com/books/article/2024/aug/05/the-big-idea-how-do-you-get-rid-of-a-dictator

摘几个和葱内相仿的观点，

What it boils down to is this: to stay in power, tyrants must keep the people with the money – elites – and the men with guns – generals – on side. Putin may have lost control of Prigozhin, but he maintained the loyalty of the elites and the generals, which is why he’s still around. When crisis came, Prigozhin couldn’t peel off key powerbrokers. If he had, it would have been Putin, not Prigozhin, meeting an untimely death. But as the Wagner group leader learned, taking on a dictator from the inside is the biggest gamble possible. When you lose, you lose everything.

When it comes to toppling tyrants, power and proximity matter. In the case of Russia, the head of the National Guard has more leverage than a civil servant in the capital – and that bureaucrat has more influence than a shopkeeper in Yekaterinburg or the Russian Far East. Foreign governments have limited influence, but can help by weakening the dictator, strengthening the masses and making life miserable for the powerbrokers who keep the system running, while giving them an opportunity to escape.

That means broad sanctions that deprive the tyrant of opportunities to redistribute money to elites and generals, and measures that make it harder to access weaponry that can be used to suppress protesters or surveillance software to control opponents. （这里可以说，不论墙国内外，任由强国土匪敛财，就是帮凶）If revolutionaries need a place to organise abroad, it should be provided. Regime insiders should be encouraged to defect and offered money and safety if they do so. Dissidents then need to build a broad coalition and take to the streets. If they manage to mobilise, especially in the capital and other major cities, there is every chance that the system will crack.

Unfortunately, that approach is unlikely to work in the world’s most entrenched and destructive regimes such as Putin’s Russia, Kim Jong-un’s North Korea or Xi Jinping’s China. In these countries, popular mobilisation is all but impossible. Even if a large number of Russians, North Koreans or Chinese wanted to remove their leaders, there’s almost no way to organise large demonstrations. And if there was, there would be no guarantee that the dictatorships would crumble. They might resort to mass violence in response, resulting in a bloodbath but no change.

For outsiders, then, there are two options: use violence or bide your time, ensuring that you are prepared for the day when the dictator makes a mistake that can be exploited. Violence, whether out in the open or covert, is rarely an attractive proposition, because its effects can be counterproductive or outright devastating. Democracies are seldom born from the barrel of a foreign gun. But all tyrants blunder – partly because they are human and partly because they operate in a system in which bad news is often withheld from them: nobody wants to be the messenger who gets shot. If you are patient, they often falter all by themselves. And when they do, well-executed foreign pressure and support can make the difference, turning a struggling despot into a former dictator.

另外摘一个西方与俄罗斯犯人交换被释放的政治犯，之后反水替俄罗斯求情，说普通民众不应该承担受到经济制裁的严重后果，乌克兰方面对这个政治犯为俄罗斯求情表示强烈不满，之后这个反水的政治犯眼看不对又反水反水，说普京今天这鸟样，俄罗斯民众也有共同责任，同样的，二百斤千错万错，绝对不是牠一个人（畜）的错，要是什么都推给土匪组织，甚至土匪组织头目一人，就是大众不能反省，逃避责任，躲避承认自己是帮凶的做法，将来就是二百斤没了，还会有三百斤，四百斤，https://pincong.rocks/article/item_id-772498

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/06/ukraine-war-briefing-backlash-at-freed-russians-calling-for-eased-sanctions-and-negotiation

Ukrainians have reacted angrily to calls by freed Russian political prisoners to ease sanctions that affect ordinary Russians and for the two sides to enter negotiations. Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was serving 25 years in prison, had asked the west to consider whether sanctions hitting ordinary Russians were “unfair and counterproductive”. The Ukrainian lawmaker Iryna Gerashchenko was among those who responded, saying: “I no longer believe in any good Russians.” After a wave of criticism, Kara-Murza told the BBC he accepted that Russian society shared “responsibility for what the Putin regime is doing … Putin can’t be allowed to win this war. Ukraine must win, and there should be more support from western countries so that happens.”

最后说再一句，葱内一些帖子标题还是不区分国，家，党，和政府，这些是几个不同的东西，中原发展出来的那个国家实际上没有亡过，亡的都是皇帝一人的家天下，亡的是政权，像新疆土地上人不存在了，语言被灭绝了，甚至变成沙漠，人和城市都没了，那才叫亡国，说中原亡国的怕不是替皇帝操心，替掌权者辩护，亡的是皇帝的一家的国，又不是你的国，又不是普通人的国，