.最終一切都會有一個好的結果

英文有一句話,沒想到今天會體會這麼深

 Everything will be all right in the end. If it's not all right then it's not the end

這句話在world war z裡面也出現過

At its prewar height, this region boasted a population of over thirty-five million people. Now, there are barely fifty thousand. Reconstruction funds have been slow to arrive in this part of the country, the government choosing to concentrate on the more densely populated coast. There is no central power grid, no running water besides the Yangtze River. But the streets are clear of rubble and the local “security council” has prevented any postwar outbreaks. The chairman of that council is Kwang Jingshu, a medical doctor who, despite his advanced age and wartime injuries, still manages to make house calls to all his patients.]

The first outbreak I saw was in a remote village that officially had no name. The residents called it “New Dachang,” but this was more out of nostalgia than anything else. Their former home, “Old Dachang,” had stood since the period of the Three Kingdoms, with farms and houses and even trees said to be centuries old. When the Three Gorges Dam was completed, and reservoir waters began to rise, much of Dachang had been disassembled, brick by brick, then rebuilt on higher ground. This New Dachang, however, was not a town anymore, but a “national historic museum.” It must have been a heartbreaking irony for those poor peasants, to see their town saved but then only being able to visit it as a tourist. Maybe that is why some of them chose to name their newly constructed hamlet “New Dachang” to preserve some connection to their heritage, even if it was only in name. I personally didn’t know that this other New Dachang existed, so you can imagine how confused I was when the call came in.

The hospital was quiet; it had been a slow night, even for the increasing number of drunk-driving accidents. Motorcycles were becoming very popular. We used to say that your Harley-Davidsons killed more young Chinese than all the GIs in the Korean War. That’s why I was so grateful for a quiet shift. I was tired, my back and feet ached. I was on my way out to smoke a cigarette and watch the dawn when I heard my name being paged. The receptionist that night was new and couldn’t quite understand the dialect. There had been an accident, or an illness. It was an emergency, that part was obvious, and could we please send help at once.

What could I say? The younger doctors, the kids who think medicine is just a way to pad their bank accounts, they certainly weren’t going to go help some “nongmin” just for the sake of helping. I guess I’m still an old revolutionary at heart. “Our duty is to hold ourselves responsible to the people.”(1) Those words still mean something to me…and I tried to remember that as my Deer(2) bounced and banged over dirt roads the government had promised but never quite gotten around to paving.

I had a devil of a time finding the place. Officially, it didn’t exist and therefore wasn’t on any map. I became lost several times and had to ask directions from locals who kept thinking I meant the museum town. I was in an impatient mood by the time I reached the small collection of hilltop homes. I remember thinking, This had better be damned serious. Once I saw their faces, I regretted my wish.

There were seven of them, all on cots, all barely conscious. The villagers had moved them into their new communal meeting hall. The walls and floor were bare cement. The air was cold and damp. Of course they’re sick, I thought. I asked the villagers who had been taking care of these people. They said no one, it wasn’t “safe.” I noticed that the door had been locked from the outside. The villagers were clearly terrified. They cringed and whispered; some kept their distance and prayed. Their behavior made me angry, not at them, you understand, not as individuals, but what they represented about our country. After centuries of foreign oppression, exploitation, and humiliation, we were finally reclaiming our rightful place as humanity’s middle kingdom. We were the world’s richest and most dynamic superpower, masters of everything from outer space to cyber space. It was the dawn of what the world was finally acknowledging as “The Chinese Century” and yet so many of us still lived like these ignorant peasants, as stagnant and superstitious as the earliest Yangshao savages.

I was still lost in my grand, cultural criticism when I knelt to examine the first patient. She was running a high fever, forty degrees centigrade, and she was shivering violently. Barely coherent, she whimpered slightly when I tried to move her limbs. There was a wound in her right forearm, a bite mark. As I examined it more closely, I realized that it wasn’t from an animal. The bite radius and teeth marks had to have come from a small, or possibly young, human being. Although I hypothesized this to be the source of the infection, the actual injury was surprisingly clean. I asked the villagers, who had been taking care of these people. Again, they told me no one. I knew this could not be true. The human mouth is packed with bacteria, even more so than the most unhygienic dog. If no one had cleaned this woman’s wound, why wasn’t it throbbing with infection?

I examined the six other patients. All showed similar symptoms, all had similar wounds on various parts of their bodies. I asked one man, the most lucid of the group, who or what had inflicted these injuries. He told me it had happened when they had tried to subdue “him.”

“Who?” I asked.

I found “Patient Zero” behind the locked door of an abandoned house across town. He was twelve years old. His wrists and feet were bound with plastic packing twine. Although he’d rubbed off the skin around his bonds, there was no blood. There was also no blood on his other wounds, not on the gouges on his legs or arms, or from the large dry gap where his right big toe had been. He was writhing like an animal; a gag muffled his growls.

At first the villagers tried to hold me back. They warned me not to touch him, that he was “cursed.” I shrugged them off and reached for my mask and gloves. The boy’s skin was as cold and gray as the cement on which he lay. I could find neither his heartbeat nor his pulse. His eyes were wild, wide and sunken back in their sockets. They remained locked on me like a predatory beast. Throughout the examination he was inexplicably hostile, reaching for me with his bound hands and snapping at me through his gag.

His movements were so violent I had to call for two of the largest villagers to help me hold him down. Initially they wouldn’t budge, cowering in the doorway like baby rabbits. I explained that there was no risk of infection if they used gloves and masks. When they shook their heads, I made it an order, even though I had no lawful authority to do so.

That was all it took. The two oxen knelt beside me. One held the boy’s feet while the other grasped his hands. I tried to take a blood sample and instead extracted only brown, viscous matter. As I was withdrawing the needle, the boy began another bout of violent struggling.

One of my “orderlies,” the one responsible for his arms, gave up trying to hold them and thought it might safer if he just braced them against the floor with his knees. But the boy jerked again and I heard his left arm snap. Jagged ends of both radius and ulna bones stabbed through his gray flesh. Although the boy didn’t cry out, didn’t even seem to notice, it was enough for both assistants to leap back and run from the room.

I instinctively retreated several paces myself. I am embarrassed to admit this; I have been a doctor for most of my adult life. I was trained and…you could even say “raised” by the People’s Liberation Army. I’ve treated more than my share of combat injuries, faced my own death on more than one occasion, and now I was scared, truly scared, of this frail child.

The boy began to twist in my direction, his arm ripped completely free. Flesh and muscle tore from one another until there was nothing except the stump. His now free right arm, still tied to the severed left hand, dragged his body across the floor.

I hurried outside, locking the door behind me. I tried to compose myself, control my fear and shame. My voice still cracked as I asked the villagers how the boy had been infected. No one answered. I began to hear banging on the door, the boy’s fist pounding weakly against the thin wood. It was all I could do not to jump at the sound. I prayed they would not notice the color draining from my face. I shouted, as much from fear as frustration, that I had to know what happened to this child.

A young woman came forward, maybe his mother. You could tell that she had been crying for days; her eyes were dry and deeply red. She admitted that it had happened when the boy and his father were “moon fishing,” a term that describes diving for treasure among the sunken ruins of the Three Gorges Reservoir. With more than eleven hundred abandoned villages, towns, and even cities, there was always the hope of recovering something valuable. It was a very common practice in those days, and also very illegal. She explained that they weren’t looting, that it was their own village, Old Dachang, and they were just trying to recover some heirlooms from the remaining houses that hadn’t been moved. She repeated the point, and I had to interrupt her with promises not to inform the police. She finally explained that the boy came up crying with a bite mark on his foot. He didn’t know what had happened, the water had been too dark and muddy. His father was never seen again.

I reached for my cell phone and dialed the number of Doctor Gu Wen Kuei, an old comrade from my army days who now worked at the Institute of Infectious Diseases at Chongqing University.(3) We exchanged pleasantries, discussing our health, our grandchildren; it was only proper. I then told him about the outbreak and listened as he made some joke about the hygiene habits of hillbillies. I tried to chuckle along but continued that I thought the incident might be significant. Almost reluctantly he asked me what the symptoms were. I told him everything: the bites, the fever, the boy, the arm…his face suddenly stiffened. His smile died.

He asked me to show him the infected. I went back into the meeting hall and waved the phone’s camera over each of the patients. He asked me to move the camera closer to some of the wounds themselves. I did so and when I brought the screen back to my face, I saw that his video image had been cut.

“Stay where you are,” he said, just a distant, removed voice now. “Take the names of all who have had contact with the infected. Restrain those already infected. If any have passed into coma, vacate the room and secure the exit.” His voice was flat, robotic, as if he had rehearsed this speech or was reading from something. He asked me, “Are you armed?” “Why would I be?” I asked. He told me he would get back to me, all business again. He said he had to make a few calls and that I should expect “support” within several hours.

They were there in less than one, fifty men in large army Z-8A helicopters; all were wearing hazardous materials suits. They said they were from the Ministry of Health. I don’t know who they thought they were kidding. With their bullying swagger, their intimidating arrogance, even these backwater bumpkins could recognize the Guoanbu.(4)

Their first priority was the meeting hall. The patients were carried out on stretchers, their limbs shackled, their mouths gagged. Next, they went for the boy. He came out in a body bag. His mother was wailing as she and the rest of the village were rounded up for “examinations.” Their names were taken, their blood drawn. One by one they were stripped and photographed. The last one to be exposed was a withered old woman. She had a thin, crooked body, a face with a thousand lines and tiny feet that had to have been bound when she was a girl. She was shaking her bony fist at the “doctors.” “This is your punishment!” she shouted. “This is revenge for Fengdu!”

She was referring to the City of Ghosts, whose temples and shrines were dedicated to the underworld. Like Old Dachang, it had been an unlucky obstacle to China’s next Great Leap Forward. It had been evacuated, then demolished, then almost entirely drowned. I’ve never been a superstitious person and I’ve never allowed myself to be hooked on the opiate of the people. I’m a doctor, a scientist. I believe only in what I can see and touch. I’ve never seen Fengdu as anything but a cheap, kitschy tourist trap. Of course this ancient crone’s words had no effect on me, but her tone, her anger…she had witnessed enough calamity in her years upon the earth: the warlords, the Japanese, the insane nightmare of the Cultural Revolution…she knew that another storm was coming, even if she didn’t have the education to understand it.

My colleague Dr. Kuei had understood all too well. He’d even risked his neck to warn me, to give me enough time to call and maybe alert a few others before the “Ministry of Health” arrived. It was something he had said…a phrase he hadn’t used in a very long time, not since those “minor” border clashes with the Soviet Union. That was back in 1969. We had been in an earthen bunker on our side of the Ussuri, less than a kilometer downriver from Chen Bao. The Russians were preparing to retake the island, their massive artillery hammering our forces.

Gu and I had been trying to remove shrapnel from the belly of this soldier not much younger than us. The boy’s lower intestines had been torn open, his blood and excrement were all over our gowns. Every seven seconds a round would land close by and we would have to bend over his body to shield the wound from falling earth, and every time we would be close enough to hear him whimper softly for his mother. There were other voices, too, rising from the pitch darkness just beyond the entrance to our bunker, desperate, angry voices that weren’t supposed to be on our side of the river. We had two infantrymen stationed at the bunker’s entrance. One of them shouted “Spetsnaz!” and started firing into the dark. We could hear other shots now as well, ours or theirs, we couldn’t tell.

Another round hit and we bent over the dying boy. Gu’s face was only a few centimeters from mine. There was sweat pouring down his forehead. Even in the dim light of one paraffin lantern, I could see that he was shaking and pale. He looked at the patient, then at the doorway, then at me, and suddenly he said, “Don’t worry, everything’s going to be all right.” Now, this is a man who has never said a positive thing in his life. Gu was a worrier, a neurotic curmudgeon. If he had a headache, it was a brain tumor; if it looked like rain, this year’s harvest was ruined. This was his way of controlling the situation, his lifelong strategy for always coming out ahead. Now, when reality looked more dire than any of his fatalistic predictions, he had no choice but to turn tail and charge in the opposite direction. “Don’t worry, everything’s going to be all right.” For the first time everything turned out as he predicted. The Russians never crossed the river and we even managed to save our patient.

For years afterward I would tease him about what it took to pry out a little ray of sunshine, and he would always respond that it would take a hell of a lot worse to get him to do it again. Now we were old men, and something worse was about to happen. It was right after he asked me if I was armed. “No,” I said, “why should I be?” There was a brief silence, I’m sure other ears were listening. “Don’t worry,” he said, “everything’s going to be all right.” That was when I realized that this was not an isolated outbreak. I ended the call and quickly placed another to my daughter in Guangzhou.

Her husband worked for China Telecom and spent at least one week of every month abroad. I told her it would be a good idea to accompany him the next time he left and that she should take my granddaughter and stay for as long as they could. I didn’t have time to explain; my signal was jammed just as the first helicopter appeared. The last thing I managed to say to her was “Don’t worry, everything’s going to be all right.”

[Kwang Jingshu was arrested by the MSS and incarcerated without formal charges. By the time he escaped, the outbreak had spread beyond China’s borders.]

我現在完全能夠理解書中貴?醫生的心情了,但你確定接下來的都是絕望的時候

那麼你就只能跟自己說, 最終一切都會有一個好的結果
2
分享 2020-02-16

26 个评论

雖然不想坦白,其實那瓶免費酒精完全摧毀我對台灣防疫信心。。。

不是說我對政府任何不滿,而是我認為台灣政府自己也已經為最糟糕的做準備
蔡英文現在可能覺得很絕望吧,我都做對的事情,為什麼最終還可能會是絕望
很難想像台灣衛生部的官員在私下的報告,畢竟這麼專業,會給她有希望的預測,當然我也不是台灣公務員

所以,就是

最終一切都會有一個好的結果
不会,如果你信绿营我劝你至少别深信。
蔡英文現在可能覺得很絕望吧,我都做對的事情,為什麼最終還可能會是絕望

因为选择权不在她手上。我也在想,为什么坏人做了坏事却仍然可以选择是继续还是回头弥补,而其他人只能被动受害没得选。而事实是,坏人之所以是坏人,就在于他绝不会做任何事弥补他所做的坏事,只想着赶紧把自己遭受的报应带给其他无辜的人
不会,如果你信绿营我劝你至少别深信。

其實這是非常簡單的反推理,如果台灣真的覺得不會爆發社區感染派免費酒精做什麼,這都是國家的錢,有這個錢不如做別的更重要的,畢竟台灣感染這麼少。 當然我可能過分悲觀,但是這個動作其實真的讓我絕望。

不過我不是來撒播絕望情緒的,就很希望大家冷靜
我一直相信作為成年人是有選擇的,如果死神朝我微笑,我可以選擇跪在死神面前崩潰哭泣,或者選擇給它一個中指。 
作為在品蔥又拿五毛又拿美分又拿台幣又拿日幣的人,這麼做很沒有職業道德
看看亞洲各國,病源毒瘤還在政爭搶撈油水,號稱先進國的日本也那副垃圾德性,東南亞還一片無檢測無作為就可以零確診的如意算盤,用咖稱想也知道台灣被拖下水只是早晚的事。

現在就是盡力在爭取時間,讓醫療系統可以盡可能做好一切能做的準備,比如成大醫院趕工的戶外檢疫站、戶外得來速領藥窗口、防護資源的趕工儲備、人民衛教普及等,能多拖一陣就能多做一點,盡完人事之後就聽天命,誰讓台灣這麼雖小,亞洲竟無一國可以信任。
難怪要追求脫亞入歐,週遭全是垃圾。
我想和樓主分享一個帖子裡面的回覆。


https://pincong.rocks/question/item_id-140490


引用自anonymousLiu:


任何成功的抗瘟疫措施,都必然是”反应过度的“。
因为瘟疫的增长速度是指数级别的,10倍10倍的增长。

刚出现一例的时候,立刻派调查员追查第一个患者的接触者,顺便封锁整个区,一天终结瘟疫,但会经济损失几千万。
这在当事人来看来,为一个人的小病花几千万,必然是反应过度的,哪怕这样总损失最少。

一例不理,到了一百例的时候,就该全市紧急,交通管控,调动防化部队清扫街头和可疑地区了。这样会两周终结瘟疫,但会损失好几亿。
所以这又是反应过度。哪怕这损失也比较少。

一百例不理,变成一万例,就该变成全国危机,封城隔离,全国口罩(空气传染),或者屠宰动物(如禽流感)。这样会几个月终结瘟疫,但会损失上千亿。
为一万人花几千亿,其实还是反应过度。

一万例不理,就会变成一百万例。这时候就是载入史册的大危机了,经济倒退十年以上。到这时候,什么措施都不为过了,总共损失会上几万亿。
只有花了几万亿的时候,才会显得”不反应过度"。

反对过度反应错的根本,就在于他是把花销和“现在的患者数量”对比,而不是和“任瘟疫发展的患者数量“对比。
就像为了灭一个小火星,要常年准备维护灭火器,但仍然非常划算。因为那个灭火器,防范的其实是把整个建筑烧毁的大火。




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總覺得你的情緒很容易大起大落,這樣不好,建議多玩Steam少看新聞
我想和樓主分享一個帖子裡面的回覆。引用自anonymousLiu:任何成功的抗瘟疫措施,都必然是”反...

其實我也是看了那個才一直還算抱有希望
總覺得你的情緒很容易大起大落,這樣不好,建議多玩Steam少看新聞

其實真的很想這麼做,但是我是兩個小孩子的媽媽呀
其實真的很想這麼做,但是我是兩個小孩子的媽媽呀


那就多陪小孩。
剛剛我google了一下沒看到有政府發放免費酒精的新聞,都是私人或企業捐贈,所以不太懂你為何會絕望,其實就算政府免費發酒精也沒啥好絕望的吧?
那就多陪小孩。剛剛我google了一下沒看到有政府發放免費酒精的新聞,都是私人或企業捐贈,所以不太懂...

其實台灣政府已經暗示社區爆發只是遲早而已
作為在品蔥又拿五毛又拿美分又拿台幣又拿日幣的人,這麼做很沒有職業道德

不拿卢布难以置信啊,毛子这么扣的?
其實這是非常簡單的反推理,如果台灣真的覺得不會爆發社區感染派免費酒精做什麼,這都是國家的錢,有這個錢...

這個嘛,如果硬要說,那就是發放免費酒精以避免哄搶,同時降低社區的感染風險。
我不認為算的上悲觀的原因,這理由完全說的過去,對吧?
當然啦,緊張比漫不經心好,可以考慮每幾天給家裡全面消毒一次。
其實台灣政府已經暗示社區爆發只是遲早而已

並不需要暗示,能正常分析防疫資訊與各國情勢的都知道那是必然來到局面。
是說你看起來真的需要身心科的協助,建議別對身心科太有心理負擔,
即使不使用藥物,接觸專業諮商也會有所幫助。
並不需要暗示,能正常分析防疫資訊與各國情勢的都知道那是必然來到局面。是說你看起來真的需要身心科的協助...

謝謝
[quote][/quote]
阿姨喝杯龙井压压惊
阿姨喝杯龙井压压惊

龍井難喝死了,我寧願喝可樂。 我跟你冷靜分析, 中國這種國力其實真的不算最差的了都最後變成這種鬼樣, 那麼其他印度和巴基斯坦這些窮國家了。 當然武漢的本地病毒看起來一定是最毒的,跑到外面能夠坐高鐵傳染全中國的武漢人他們的病毒一定相對弱很多,畢竟能夠活著坐高鐵還到處傳染,這些武漢人身上的病毒致死率就近乎可以肯定沒有武漢本地立刻死的那些人高。 事實上,中國各省死亡率就顯示這種規律,我願意暫且相信中國說法,武漢死亡率高於湖北死亡率,然後湖北死亡率高於中國各省的這種說法, 全球中國以外國家的死亡率看起來也印證中共官方說法。

但這也是問題最大的地方,因為爆出高感染人數的幾乎全部都是發達國家,然後你跟我說病毒都是在發達國家發威而放過貧困國家,你跟我說可能嗎? 我說中國國力沒有那麼差真的沒有讚美中國的意思,因為其他國家就真的太窮了。 你可能覺得日本做得差,當然沒有台灣那麼好,但是如果跟其他窮困國家比,你可能發現它做得非常優秀了。

如果病毒在印度非洲這些炎熱國家發威,不要說不會,新加坡貌似也沒有多冷,當然你完全可以argue他們住冷氣房。也希望如此,如果病毒可以在炎熱情況下傳播,那麼後續情況就很可怕了。 我希望台灣政府能夠放出的訊息是天氣變熱就比較好一點,因為接下來台灣天氣會開始變熱,但是它沒有。

如果天氣變熱病毒依然能發威,那麼這個後續就會非常可怕,而東亞乃至中國都不會是全球最糟糕的地方,因為畢竟這個地區的各國國力還是在那裡。 但是地球上那些窮困國家了,這才是我覺得非常可怕的點。 我不相信獨善其身,如果其他窮國真的完全崩潰,其他發達國家自然跟著倒霉

當然這也是我讀了很多英文新聞的心得文。。。

也承認我可能過於焦慮
如果這種病毒在炎熱天氣也發揮今天在東亞各發達國家的威力,那麼今天中國所發生的悲劇你只會覺得是,哦,也就還好啦
沒想到白姑娘已經有孩子了呀.
阿,我看消息的感覺是一直在往一定會爆發社區感染的方向防疫欸,不然沒必要反應成這樣
只是能夠撐多久、在到來之前有沒有其他國家的案例可以參考
今天就爆了,只能盡人事聽天命了
勤洗手戴口罩

祝孩子們都好
沒想到白姑娘已經有孩子了呀.

=D
阿,我看消息的感覺是一直在往一定會爆發社區感染的方向防疫欸,不然沒必要反應成這樣只是能夠撐多久、在到...


謝謝哦,我昨天還希望起碼撐一個禮拜

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