[2022/03/07][ISW]入侵戰爭消息一覽 "傳俄羅斯因經濟壓力,內部將戰爭截止日訂為6月"
俄羅斯聯邦海關總署於 3 月 5 日以毒品罪名拘留了一名美國公民，這可能會提高俄羅斯對美國的影響力。[11]俄羅斯聯邦海關總署於 3 月 5 日在謝列梅捷沃機場拘留了 NBA 籃球運動員 Brittney Griner，罪名是擁有哈希油。[12]
一名被指控的 FSB 舉報人洩露了他們對俄烏戰爭的分析，強調了主要的後勤和規劃問題。[13] 這封洩露的信指責俄羅斯領導人計劃不周，並向包括入侵計劃者在內的俄羅斯人民隱瞞戰爭的性質。這位寫信人聲稱，俄羅斯情報分析員沒有提供對烏克蘭抵抗或西方制裁影響的準確評估，因為俄羅斯領導層告訴分析員，他們的評估是假設性的思考練習，對俄羅斯的積極結果的評估將在政治上有益。這位寫信人還聲稱，俄羅斯外國情報局（SVR）正在積極尋找烏克蘭正在製造核武器的證據。這位寫信人還聲稱，由於經濟壓力，俄羅斯將戰爭結束的內部截止日期定為 6 月。
克里姆林宮繼續限制拒絕遵守其新的虛假信息法的新聞和社交媒體，因為其他媒體在 3 月 5 日至 6 日限製或關閉了他們在俄羅斯的業務。 克里姆林宮正在利用其對西方虛假信息的指控來證明其加速社會控制措施的正當性，這些措施消除了俄羅斯的言論自由、抗議權和獲取可信信息的權利。克里姆林宮發言人德米特里·佩斯科夫（Dmitry Peskov）將加強對言論自由的鎮壓作為一項國家安全措施進行了辯護。 [14] 佩斯科夫說，俄羅斯公民必須“在法律框架內”表達他們對俄羅斯在烏克蘭的軍事行動的立場，但沒有具體說明法律的範圍。[15] 克里姆林宮可能會尋求促進俄羅斯公民的自我審查。俄羅斯內政部發言人伊琳娜·沃爾克 3 月 6 日承認，俄羅斯當局在莫斯科、聖彼得堡和其他未指明的地區逮捕了 3500 名抗議者，可能會阻止更多的抗議活動。[16]
中國社交媒體平台 TikTok 於 3 月 6 日暫停在俄羅斯的直播和新內容，以遵守新的審查法。[17] 俄羅斯擁有的媒體應用程序 Telegram 在 3 月 5 日短暫經歷了服務中斷，可能是為了確保遵守新的虛假信息法。[18] 俄羅斯用戶經常使用 TikTok、Telegram 和其他社交媒體應用程序來分享俄羅斯在俄羅斯的部隊動向，並傳播烏克蘭動能行動的鏡頭。俄羅斯國家媒體監管機構 Rozkomnadzor 也在 3 月 6 日阻止了對通信應用程序 Zello 的訪問，原因是其拒絕遵守審查法。[19]
自由歐洲電台和自由電台於 3 月 6 日關閉了他們在俄羅斯的業務，原因是他們拒絕接受被指定為“外國代理人”的罰款越來越高。[20] 俄羅斯獨立新聞 機構 COLTA 於 3 月 5 日暫時停刊，並表示必須“改變”並刪除最近發表的有關俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭的材料，以遵守法律。[21]
The Russian Federal Customs Service detained a US citizen on drug charges on March 5, likely to improve Russian leverage over the United States.[11] The Russian Federal Customs Service detained NBA Basketball player Brittney Griner for possession of hash oil at Sheremetyevo airport on March 5.[12]
An alleged FSB whistleblower leaked their analysis on the Russian-Ukrainian war, highlighting major logistical and planning issues. [13] The leaked letter accused Russian leaders of poor planning and concealing the nature of the war from the Russian people, including planners for the invasion. The letter-writer claimed that Russian intelligence analysts did not provide accurate assessments of the impact of Ukrainian resistance or Western sanctions because Russian leadership told analysts that their assessments were hypothetical thought exercises for which the assessment of a positive outcome for Russia would be politically beneficial. The letter-writer also claimed that the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is searching intensely for evidence that Ukraine is building nuclear weapons. The letter-writer also alleged that Russia has an internal deadline of June for the end of the war due to economic pressures.
The Kremlin continued restricting news and social media outlets that refused to comply with its new disinformation law as other media outlets restricted or closed their Russian operations on March 5-6. The Kremlin is leveraging its accusations of Western disinformation against Russia to justify its acceleration of social control measures that eliminate Russian freedom of speech, right to protest, and access to trusted information. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov justified increasing crackdowns on freedom of speech as a national security measure. [14] Peskov said that Russian citizens must express their positions on the Russian military operation in Ukraine “within the framework of the law” but did not specify the parameters of the law.[15] The Kremlin likely seeks to promote self-censorship among Russian citizens. Russian Internal Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Irina Volk admitted on March 6 that Russian authorities arrested 3,500 protesters in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other unspecified regions, likely to deter additional protests.[16]
Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok temporarily suspended live broadcasting and new content in Russia on March 6 to comply with the new censorship law.[17] Russian-owned media application Telegram briefly experienced service interruptions on March 5, possibly to ensure compliance with the new disinformation law.[18] Russian users frequently use TikTok, Telegram, and other social media applications to share Russian force movements in Russia and spread footage of kinetic action in Ukraine. Russian state media regulator Rozkomnadzor also blocked access to communications application Zello on March 6 over its refusal to comply with the censorship law.[19]
Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty closed their Russian operations on March 6 due to mounting fines over their refusal to accept their designations as “foreign agents.”[20] Independent Russian news outlet COLTA temporarily suspended publications on March 5 and said that it must “make changes” to and remove recently published materials on Russia’s war in Ukraine to comply with the law.[21]
俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京 (Vladimir Putin) 於 3 月 6 日簽署了一項法令，允許沒收屬於“腐敗”俄羅斯官員的資產，這可能會以疏遠一些支持者為代價來增加國家收入。[22] 該法令允許克里姆林宮在其資產超過三年收入的情況下從官員賬戶中提取資金。如果官員不提供其土地所有權、房地產、車輛和其他資產來源的法律文件，克里姆林宮將沒收這些資產。克里姆林宮不太可能進行公正的審計，並可能依靠沒收不聽話官員的資產來為俄羅斯衰退的經濟提供資金。此類扣押可能會損害普京與地區政府的關係。克里姆林宮對烏克蘭的入侵已經惡化了與前親俄羅斯的烏克蘭商人如 Rinat Akhmetov 的關係，他們在 3 月 5 日譴責俄羅斯是一個侵略性國家，普京是“戰犯”。[23] 俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭很可能摧毀了艾哈邁托夫在烏克蘭的工業。艾哈邁托夫以前是親普京的亞努科維奇政權的堅定支持者。
克里姆林宮試圖阻止美國或歐洲對俄羅斯石油出口的禁令，聲稱禁令會破壞世界石油市場。 克里姆林宮發言人德米特里·佩斯科夫 3 月 5 日警告說，美國對俄羅斯石油進口的限制“可能對俄羅斯石油產生相當嚴重的後果”，這將擾亂世界能源市場。[24] 美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯在 3 月 6 日表示，美國歐盟正在考慮禁止俄羅斯石油進口，“同時確保世界市場上仍有適當的石油供應”。[25]
3 月 5 日，隨著克里姆林宮開始對外國企業進行報復，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京將西方制裁比作“宣戰”。[26]普京的“宣戰”言論可能是為了讓俄羅斯民眾為更多的困難做好準備。
克里姆林宮很可能試圖通過掩蓋有關其資產和收入的可用信息來阻止西方對俄羅斯官員的進一步製裁。國家杜馬於 3 月 5 日以反腐敗為幌子提出了一項法案，以刪除有關受制裁公職人員收入和資產的公共信息，以防止“不友好的國家施加壓力並影響俄羅斯官員”及其家人。[27]
克里姆林宮開始報復並取代西方公司對其政府的製裁。克里姆林宮發言人德米特里佩斯科夫聲稱，西方政府像土匪一樣行事，強迫私營公司離開俄羅斯市場，並通過沒收受制裁的俄羅斯商人在國外的財產侵犯了他們的財產權。[28] 佩斯科夫聲稱，俄羅斯公司可能會採取“非標準和大膽”的措施，例如使用未經許可的軟件，鼓勵盜版西方程序。[29] 普京於 3 月 6 日下令克里姆林宮創建一份“不友好”國家、法律實體和行為者名單。[30] 普京還簽署了一項法令，允許俄羅斯公司以俄羅斯盧布而不是美元或歐元償還“不友好”的外國債權人的債務。[31] 俄羅斯國家杜馬經濟政策委員會成員 Sergey Altukhov 警告說，隨著俄羅斯和亞洲企業將取而代之，西方公司重返俄羅斯市場將面臨挑戰。[32] Visa、Mastercard、American Express 和 PayPal 於 3 月 5 日至 6 日暫停了在俄羅斯的業務，限制了俄羅斯人進行國內交易的能力。[33] 據報導，俄羅斯銀行計劃發行“Mir”聯名卡並引入中國“銀聯”系統作為報復。[34] 俄羅斯中央銀行還非正式地命令俄羅斯銀行將俄羅斯人可以轉移到國外家庭的資金數額限制為每月 5,000 美元，以防止貨幣在 3 月 5 日離開該國。[35]
克里姆林宮也在利用自己和西方的製裁來推進其外交政策和國家利益。俄羅斯外交部長謝爾蓋·拉夫羅夫威脅說，如果美國不保證不會在 3 月 6 日對俄羅斯與伊朗的貿易和投資實施西方對俄羅斯的製裁，那麼將破壞伊朗核協議談判。[36] 俄羅斯農業和獸醫監管機構可能會取消3 月 6 日，格魯吉亞 15 家乳製品生產商採取限制措施，以獎勵格魯吉亞政府不願正式支持烏克蘭。[37]
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing for the confiscation of assets belonging to “corrupt” Russian officials on March 6, likely to raise state revenue at the expense of alienating some supporters.[22] The decree allows the Kremlin to withdraw money from an official’s account if its assets exceed three years' worth of income. The Kremlin will confiscate the assets if the official does not provide legal documentation of the origin of his or her land ownership, real estate, vehicles, and other assets. The Kremlin is unlikely to conduct fair audits and may rely on seizing the assets of disobedient officials to fund Russia’s declining economy. Such seizures would likely damage Putin’s relations with regional governments. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine has already soured relations with formerly pro-Russian Ukrainian businessmen like Rinat Akhmetov, who denounced Russia as an aggressive country and Putin as a “war criminal” on March 5.[23] Russia’s invasion of Ukraine likely destroyed Akhmetov’s Ukraine-based industries. Akhmetov was previously a strong supporter of the pro- Putin Yanukovych regime.
The Kremlin is attempting to deter US or European bans on Russian oil exports by claiming that a ban would devastate world oil markets. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned on March 5 that US limitations on Russian oil imports "could have rather serious consequences” on Russian oil that would disrupt the world energy market.[24] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on March 6 that the United States and the European Union are looking into banning Russian oil imports “while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil in world markets.”[25]
Russian President Vladimir Putin compared Western sanctions to a “declaration of war” on March 5 as the Kremlin began to retaliate against foreign businesses.[26] Putin’s “declaration of war” rhetoric is likely intended to prepare the Russian population for additional hardship.
The Kremlin is likely attempting to prevent further Western sanctions against Russian officials by masking available information on their assets and incomes. The State Duma introduced a bill under the guise of anti-corruption efforts to remove public information about income and assets of sanctioned public officials on March 5 to prevent “unfriendly states from exerting pressure and influencing Russian officials” and their families.[27]
The Kremlin is beginning to retaliate against and replace Western companies for their governments’ sanctions. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Western governments acted like bandits, coerced private companies to leave Russian markets, and infringed on the property rights of sanctioned Russian businessmen by confiscating their properties abroad.[28] Peskov claimed that Russian companies might resort to using “non-standard and bold” measures such as using unlicensed software, encouraging pirating of Western programs.[29] Putin ordered the Kremlin to create a list of “unfriendly” states, legal entities, and actors on March 6.[30] Putin also signed a decree allowing Russian companies to repay debts to “unfriendly” foreign creditors in Russian rubles instead of dollars or euros.[31] Russian State Duma Committee on Economic Policy member Sergey Altukhov warned that Western companies will have a challenging time returning to the Russian market as Russian and Asian businesses will replace them.[32] Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and PayPal suspended their operations in Russia on March 5-6, limiting Russians’ abilities to conduct domestic transactions.[33] Russian banks reportedly plan to issue “Mir” co-badged cards and introduce the Chinese “UnionPay” system in retaliation.[34] Russia’s Central Bank also unofficially ordered Russian banks to limit the amount of funds Russians can transfer to families abroad to $5,000 a month to prevent currency from leaving the country on March 5.[35]
The Kremlin is also leveraging its own and Western sanctions to advance its foreign policy and national interests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov threatened to derail the Iran nuclear deal talks if the United States does not guarantee that Western sanctions against Russia will not be imposed on Russian trade and investment with Iran on March 6.[36] Russian agriculture and veterinary regulators likely lifted restrictions from 15 Georgian dairy producers on March 6 to reward the Georgian government for its reluctance to officially support Ukraine.[37]
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再打3個月?
如果這是真的
各種方面上"大帝"想得也太好了
一名被指控的 FSB 舉報人洩露了他們對俄烏戰爭的分析，強調了主要的後勤和規劃問題。[13] 這封洩露的信指責俄羅斯領導人計劃不周，並向包括入侵計劃者在內的俄羅斯人民隱瞞戰爭的性質。這位寫信人聲稱，俄羅斯情報分析員沒有提供對烏克蘭抵抗或西方制裁影響的準確評估，因為俄羅斯領導層告訴分析員，他們的評估是假設性的思考練習，對俄羅斯的積極結果的評估將在政治上有益。這位寫信人還聲稱，俄羅斯外國情報局（SVR）正在積極尋找烏克蘭正在製造核武器的證據。這位寫信人還聲稱，由於經濟壓力，俄羅斯將戰爭結束的內部截止日期定為 6 月。
克里姆林宮繼續限制拒絕遵守其新的虛假信息法的新聞和社交媒體，因為其他媒體在 3 月 5 日至 6 日限製或關閉了他們在俄羅斯的業務。 克里姆林宮正在利用其對西方虛假信息的指控來證明其加速社會控制措施的正當性，這些措施消除了俄羅斯的言論自由、抗議權和獲取可信信息的權利。克里姆林宮發言人德米特里·佩斯科夫（Dmitry Peskov）將加強對言論自由的鎮壓作為一項國家安全措施進行了辯護。 [14] 佩斯科夫說，俄羅斯公民必須“在法律框架內”表達他們對俄羅斯在烏克蘭的軍事行動的立場，但沒有具體說明法律的範圍。[15] 克里姆林宮可能會尋求促進俄羅斯公民的自我審查。俄羅斯內政部發言人伊琳娜·沃爾克 3 月 6 日承認，俄羅斯當局在莫斯科、聖彼得堡和其他未指明的地區逮捕了 3500 名抗議者，可能會阻止更多的抗議活動。[16]
中國社交媒體平台 TikTok 於 3 月 6 日暫停在俄羅斯的直播和新內容，以遵守新的審查法。[17] 俄羅斯擁有的媒體應用程序 Telegram 在 3 月 5 日短暫經歷了服務中斷，可能是為了確保遵守新的虛假信息法。[18] 俄羅斯用戶經常使用 TikTok、Telegram 和其他社交媒體應用程序來分享俄羅斯在俄羅斯的部隊動向，並傳播烏克蘭動能行動的鏡頭。俄羅斯國家媒體監管機構 Rozkomnadzor 也在 3 月 6 日阻止了對通信應用程序 Zello 的訪問，原因是其拒絕遵守審查法。[19]
自由歐洲電台和自由電台於 3 月 6 日關閉了他們在俄羅斯的業務，原因是他們拒絕接受被指定為“外國代理人”的罰款越來越高。[20] 俄羅斯獨立新聞 機構 COLTA 於 3 月 5 日暫時停刊，並表示必須“改變”並刪除最近發表的有關俄羅斯在烏克蘭的戰爭的材料，以遵守法律。[21]
The Russian Federal Customs Service detained a US citizen on drug charges on March 5, likely to improve Russian leverage over the United States.[11] The Russian Federal Customs Service detained NBA Basketball player Brittney Griner for possession of hash oil at Sheremetyevo airport on March 5.[12]
An alleged FSB whistleblower leaked their analysis on the Russian-Ukrainian war, highlighting major logistical and planning issues. [13] The leaked letter accused Russian leaders of poor planning and concealing the nature of the war from the Russian people, including planners for the invasion. The letter-writer claimed that Russian intelligence analysts did not provide accurate assessments of the impact of Ukrainian resistance or Western sanctions because Russian leadership told analysts that their assessments were hypothetical thought exercises for which the assessment of a positive outcome for Russia would be politically beneficial. The letter-writer also claimed that the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is searching intensely for evidence that Ukraine is building nuclear weapons. The letter-writer also alleged that Russia has an internal deadline of June for the end of the war due to economic pressures.
The Kremlin continued restricting news and social media outlets that refused to comply with its new disinformation law as other media outlets restricted or closed their Russian operations on March 5-6. The Kremlin is leveraging its accusations of Western disinformation against Russia to justify its acceleration of social control measures that eliminate Russian freedom of speech, right to protest, and access to trusted information. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov justified increasing crackdowns on freedom of speech as a national security measure. [14] Peskov said that Russian citizens must express their positions on the Russian military operation in Ukraine “within the framework of the law” but did not specify the parameters of the law.[15] The Kremlin likely seeks to promote self-censorship among Russian citizens. Russian Internal Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Irina Volk admitted on March 6 that Russian authorities arrested 3,500 protesters in Moscow, St. Petersburg, and other unspecified regions, likely to deter additional protests.[16]
Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok temporarily suspended live broadcasting and new content in Russia on March 6 to comply with the new censorship law.[17] Russian-owned media application Telegram briefly experienced service interruptions on March 5, possibly to ensure compliance with the new disinformation law.[18] Russian users frequently use TikTok, Telegram, and other social media applications to share Russian force movements in Russia and spread footage of kinetic action in Ukraine. Russian state media regulator Rozkomnadzor also blocked access to communications application Zello on March 6 over its refusal to comply with the censorship law.[19]
Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty closed their Russian operations on March 6 due to mounting fines over their refusal to accept their designations as “foreign agents.”[20] Independent Russian news outlet COLTA temporarily suspended publications on March 5 and said that it must “make changes” to and remove recently published materials on Russia’s war in Ukraine to comply with the law.[21]
俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京 (Vladimir Putin) 於 3 月 6 日簽署了一項法令，允許沒收屬於“腐敗”俄羅斯官員的資產，這可能會以疏遠一些支持者為代價來增加國家收入。[22] 該法令允許克里姆林宮在其資產超過三年收入的情況下從官員賬戶中提取資金。如果官員不提供其土地所有權、房地產、車輛和其他資產來源的法律文件，克里姆林宮將沒收這些資產。克里姆林宮不太可能進行公正的審計，並可能依靠沒收不聽話官員的資產來為俄羅斯衰退的經濟提供資金。此類扣押可能會損害普京與地區政府的關係。克里姆林宮對烏克蘭的入侵已經惡化了與前親俄羅斯的烏克蘭商人如 Rinat Akhmetov 的關係，他們在 3 月 5 日譴責俄羅斯是一個侵略性國家，普京是“戰犯”。[23] 俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭很可能摧毀了艾哈邁托夫在烏克蘭的工業。艾哈邁托夫以前是親普京的亞努科維奇政權的堅定支持者。
克里姆林宮試圖阻止美國或歐洲對俄羅斯石油出口的禁令，聲稱禁令會破壞世界石油市場。 克里姆林宮發言人德米特里·佩斯科夫 3 月 5 日警告說，美國對俄羅斯石油進口的限制“可能對俄羅斯石油產生相當嚴重的後果”，這將擾亂世界能源市場。[24] 美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯在 3 月 6 日表示，美國歐盟正在考慮禁止俄羅斯石油進口，“同時確保世界市場上仍有適當的石油供應”。[25]
3 月 5 日，隨著克里姆林宮開始對外國企業進行報復，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京將西方制裁比作“宣戰”。[26]普京的“宣戰”言論可能是為了讓俄羅斯民眾為更多的困難做好準備。
克里姆林宮很可能試圖通過掩蓋有關其資產和收入的可用信息來阻止西方對俄羅斯官員的進一步製裁。國家杜馬於 3 月 5 日以反腐敗為幌子提出了一項法案，以刪除有關受制裁公職人員收入和資產的公共信息，以防止“不友好的國家施加壓力並影響俄羅斯官員”及其家人。[27]
克里姆林宮開始報復並取代西方公司對其政府的製裁。克里姆林宮發言人德米特里佩斯科夫聲稱，西方政府像土匪一樣行事，強迫私營公司離開俄羅斯市場，並通過沒收受制裁的俄羅斯商人在國外的財產侵犯了他們的財產權。[28] 佩斯科夫聲稱，俄羅斯公司可能會採取“非標準和大膽”的措施，例如使用未經許可的軟件，鼓勵盜版西方程序。[29] 普京於 3 月 6 日下令克里姆林宮創建一份“不友好”國家、法律實體和行為者名單。[30] 普京還簽署了一項法令，允許俄羅斯公司以俄羅斯盧布而不是美元或歐元償還“不友好”的外國債權人的債務。[31] 俄羅斯國家杜馬經濟政策委員會成員 Sergey Altukhov 警告說，隨著俄羅斯和亞洲企業將取而代之，西方公司重返俄羅斯市場將面臨挑戰。[32] Visa、Mastercard、American Express 和 PayPal 於 3 月 5 日至 6 日暫停了在俄羅斯的業務，限制了俄羅斯人進行國內交易的能力。[33] 據報導，俄羅斯銀行計劃發行“Mir”聯名卡並引入中國“銀聯”系統作為報復。[34] 俄羅斯中央銀行還非正式地命令俄羅斯銀行將俄羅斯人可以轉移到國外家庭的資金數額限制為每月 5,000 美元，以防止貨幣在 3 月 5 日離開該國。[35]
克里姆林宮也在利用自己和西方的製裁來推進其外交政策和國家利益。俄羅斯外交部長謝爾蓋·拉夫羅夫威脅說，如果美國不保證不會在 3 月 6 日對俄羅斯與伊朗的貿易和投資實施西方對俄羅斯的製裁，那麼將破壞伊朗核協議談判。[36] 俄羅斯農業和獸醫監管機構可能會取消3 月 6 日，格魯吉亞 15 家乳製品生產商採取限制措施，以獎勵格魯吉亞政府不願正式支持烏克蘭。[37]
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing for the confiscation of assets belonging to “corrupt” Russian officials on March 6, likely to raise state revenue at the expense of alienating some supporters.[22] The decree allows the Kremlin to withdraw money from an official’s account if its assets exceed three years' worth of income. The Kremlin will confiscate the assets if the official does not provide legal documentation of the origin of his or her land ownership, real estate, vehicles, and other assets. The Kremlin is unlikely to conduct fair audits and may rely on seizing the assets of disobedient officials to fund Russia’s declining economy. Such seizures would likely damage Putin’s relations with regional governments. The Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine has already soured relations with formerly pro-Russian Ukrainian businessmen like Rinat Akhmetov, who denounced Russia as an aggressive country and Putin as a “war criminal” on March 5.[23] Russia’s invasion of Ukraine likely destroyed Akhmetov’s Ukraine-based industries. Akhmetov was previously a strong supporter of the pro- Putin Yanukovych regime.
The Kremlin is attempting to deter US or European bans on Russian oil exports by claiming that a ban would devastate world oil markets. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov warned on March 5 that US limitations on Russian oil imports "could have rather serious consequences” on Russian oil that would disrupt the world energy market.[24] US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on March 6 that the United States and the European Union are looking into banning Russian oil imports “while making sure that there is still an appropriate supply of oil in world markets.”[25]
Russian President Vladimir Putin compared Western sanctions to a “declaration of war” on March 5 as the Kremlin began to retaliate against foreign businesses.[26] Putin’s “declaration of war” rhetoric is likely intended to prepare the Russian population for additional hardship.
The Kremlin is likely attempting to prevent further Western sanctions against Russian officials by masking available information on their assets and incomes. The State Duma introduced a bill under the guise of anti-corruption efforts to remove public information about income and assets of sanctioned public officials on March 5 to prevent “unfriendly states from exerting pressure and influencing Russian officials” and their families.[27]
The Kremlin is beginning to retaliate against and replace Western companies for their governments’ sanctions. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Western governments acted like bandits, coerced private companies to leave Russian markets, and infringed on the property rights of sanctioned Russian businessmen by confiscating their properties abroad.[28] Peskov claimed that Russian companies might resort to using “non-standard and bold” measures such as using unlicensed software, encouraging pirating of Western programs.[29] Putin ordered the Kremlin to create a list of “unfriendly” states, legal entities, and actors on March 6.[30] Putin also signed a decree allowing Russian companies to repay debts to “unfriendly” foreign creditors in Russian rubles instead of dollars or euros.[31] Russian State Duma Committee on Economic Policy member Sergey Altukhov warned that Western companies will have a challenging time returning to the Russian market as Russian and Asian businesses will replace them.[32] Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and PayPal suspended their operations in Russia on March 5-6, limiting Russians’ abilities to conduct domestic transactions.[33] Russian banks reportedly plan to issue “Mir” co-badged cards and introduce the Chinese “UnionPay” system in retaliation.[34] Russia’s Central Bank also unofficially ordered Russian banks to limit the amount of funds Russians can transfer to families abroad to $5,000 a month to prevent currency from leaving the country on March 5.[35]
The Kremlin is also leveraging its own and Western sanctions to advance its foreign policy and national interests. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov threatened to derail the Iran nuclear deal talks if the United States does not guarantee that Western sanctions against Russia will not be imposed on Russian trade and investment with Iran on March 6.[36] Russian agriculture and veterinary regulators likely lifted restrictions from 15 Georgian dairy producers on March 6 to reward the Georgian government for its reluctance to officially support Ukraine.[37]
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再打3個月?
如果這是真的
各種方面上"大帝"想得也太好了
6 个评论
這樣搞下去，俄國得要多少年才能恢復經濟？
社會主義、專制主義最容易在貧窮的國家滋生
俄國又要走回舊路了嗎？
社會主義、專制主義最容易在貧窮的國家滋生
俄國又要走回舊路了嗎？
不看好俄国的经济和后勤再撑三个月的相持战，感觉三周都难
不知道俄文的原文是不是说战争结束，感觉他们应该会说胜利或者占领乌克兰全境之类的？
另外查了下发现哈希油就是大麻油
不知道俄文的原文是不是说战争结束，感觉他们应该会说胜利或者占领乌克兰全境之类的？
另外查了下发现哈希油就是大麻油
这就是普大爹两天活捉泽连斯基半个月占领乌克兰的脑残部署的一部分吗，到六月份鹅地面部队已经全军覆没了，鹅国的去军事化和去纳粹化到时候大致完成。
刘鹤
派樂迪
戏子英雄动员了全乌老百姓，陷爹于人民战争的汪洋大海。第一个阶段，爹战略进攻、乌战略防御。第二个阶段，爹战略保守、乌准备反攻。第三个阶段，乌战略反攻、爹战略退却。不打八年、十年，爹的疯病不会好。
用户没名
灰名单
"去纳粹化"？捕鲸脑子进屎了吧！泽连斯基是犹太裔
